NFL Week 2 - Time to pound the dogs? - Page 3

rjp · #21 09-14-2006, 05:44 PM

This isn't some rule. Just because a line is off doesn't mean it's a lock. We're talking about the long haul here, aka 2000+ bets!

Anything can and will happen in the short term. Sure, the Colts were a very good team that covered some large numbers, but they also failed to cover some large numbers. Continue trying to play these numbers over an extended period of time and you've got a good chance of losing money.

Caldarooni · #22 09-14-2006, 05:57 PM

Rjp,

Surely you can concede that its possible to cap a game where the right side is in laying big points. You may blindly bet every big dog, but somehow I'm sure thats not the best way to cap either.

-Calda

Murdz · #23 09-14-2006, 05:59 PM

rjp,

Are you betting all six (assuming Chi-Det hits 10 at kickoff) double digit dogs this weekend?

rjp · #24 09-14-2006, 06:04 PM

You don't blindly bet every big dog--you have to be getting a good price.

There are the rare situations in which a team fields a lower talent team that has no motivation to win, and you will usually only see this out of playoff bound teams in the final weeks of the season. This creates a situation where you're really not wagering on an NFL game, it's more like a college game with a stiff disparity in talent.

Blowouts happen, but it's not the likely scenario in most situations. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

rjp · #25 09-14-2006, 06:13 PM

Never say never, but I likely won't be taking Detroit.

I have Oakland +11 +100, Houston +14 -106, Cleveland +10.5 -104, Kansas City +10.5 -102, Tennessee +10.5 -104. It's all about the right price.

Assani Fisher · #26 09-14-2006, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The reality is that once you start laying 10+ points for a team at home or 7+ points for a team on the road you're putting yourself in a negative situation.

These teams may be "bad", but more often than not they cover the large numbers. Even if they rarely win the game you have a positive expectation with them at these high numbers.

It should also be obvious that these teams are more likely to be blown out by 14+ points, but this is because they don't win too much.

A good rule of thumb to follow is never lay more than 7 to 8 for a team at home, and never lay more than 6 for a team on the road.

If you can get double digits at standard odds you likely have a positive expectation. A majority of bettors either don't understand this or simply don't care. They love to bet for the blowout, but more often than not it simply doesn't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think I agree with this at all. There was some stat quoted in one of these posts around here...something like 81% of the teams that win the game outright end up covering the spread too. Forget the exact stat and numbers though, but it was recent so maybe someone else remembers it.

Assani Fisher · #27 09-14-2006, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't some rule. Just because a line is off doesn't mean it's a lock. We're talking about the long haul here, aka 2000+ bets!

Anything can and will happen in the short term. Sure, the Colts were a very good team that covered some large numbers, but they also failed to cover some large numbers. Continue trying to play these numbers over an extended period of time and you've got a good chance of losing money.

[/ QUOTE ]So you're basically saying that any big line is wrong?

rjp · #28 09-14-2006, 09:18 PM

Most lines in the NFL are "small", which is why a team is likely to cover the spread when they win. In most cases a majority of the value with a small underdog is because the team has, say a 40% chance to win, but then a 15% chance to cover when they lose, for a total of 55% chance of covering.

As you can see, then, you are likely to cover more when this team wins, not when they lose.

What I'm saying is that most large lines provide a positive expectation with the underdog. These lines are far from locks, but by wagering on them over the long haul you figure to make a profit.

cookmg · #29 09-14-2006, 09:25 PM

Anybody have any dogs they like this week to win outright? GB? Minn? NYG? SF?

20Five · #30 09-14-2006, 09:29 PM

I feel like this series between these two teams is almost always dominated by the home team. KC has had problems for a long time at mile high, and the broncos usually cant hang at arrowhead. At any rate, I think Denver shows up big for this game, and doesnt step off the gas against the Chiefs. I wont be playing this one, but if I had to, I'd be on the Broncos.

GL!