playing back with 'nothing'

[thepizzlefosho]

[ QUOTE ]

2) Start calling good Kx once in a while so that villains that can hand read isnt putting you on such a narrow range when you c/r this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

good point there oink. I tried to express that earlier in the thread. I think it is very important to mixup your lines at the table with both made and air, and to keep in mind what you have done recently against the villain in question. Poker players have relatively short memories, and they'll remember if they caught you c/r'ng with air last time. They'll also remember if the last two times they called you down you were c/r'ing a pair.

So I think in this spot you need to both c/r and c/c. And you should do the same with your made hands (obv c/r more with Kx and c/r more with weaker made hands). Mixing up your line is going to make it the most difficult for the villain to play back at you.

[Leader]

"Now everyone knows that K62r is a very bluffable flop"

Not this guy

[Heisenb3rg]

I remmeber grinding out the caclulations to a similar spot long ago with QTo and being surprised how profitable it was to peel in spots like this....

When I say their postflop style doesnt matter, im exagerating a fair bit.. there are some extreme styles that if you didnt know their strategy and thus subseuqently played terrible with your hands post-turn, you may not have adequate implied odds.

Against any realistic style im pretty confident its profitable.

What I meant by "its mathematics" is
if they bet a ton of their range on the turn, we're going to check/raise them with a turned flush draw 10/47 of the time.. Most of their range they cannot showdown (whos going to showdown Qhi?) so we make a really nice profit on our flush draw semibluffs.

If instead they check the turn with most of their unpaired hands, 60% * 30/47 (times we dont improve) we have risked 1SB to see two cards in a situation where we had 6 outs to improve twice... Plus we're not losing much on our flush draws (free card 60% of the time, - 1BBish the times he bets and we c/r)


There are some extreme styles that will counter this though, like people always showing down Q hi to a turn check/raise.. Or 3-betting their entire range on the turn...

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah if the button is opening > 30% of his hands, you have a

profitable call, no matter what their postflop style...

its mathetmatics yo

[/ QUOTE ]

this is very interesting - how can we calculate this?

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srsly, what you've said can't possibly be correct, heis.
Your implied odds aren't that sweet here (probably smaller than RIOs). Pretty sure if he bets his whole range on the turn AND plays well when you give more action, then you can't peel the flop.

Let's give him 40% steal range:
22+, a2s+, k2s+, q4s+, j6s+, t7s+, 98s, 87s, A2o+, k7o+, q8o+, j9o+, t9o

Let's also assume he c-bets his whole range on the turn if you c/c the flop

and he will always call down a c/r with A-hi or better and folds all non-oesd draws. Because I am lazy, let's also assume he always waits until the river to raise his good hands and decides to just call if the flushcard comes in. I've also somehow managed to assume he folds all unpaired flushdraws (lol), so let's see how this turns out.

You pick up a flushdraw 10/47 and Pair 6/47. Being the genius you are, you know he bets his whole range on the turn and will call down with A-hi or better so you correctly c/r the turn every time you pick up a pair or a flush draw (the fact that it is correct to c/r all these hands given his strategy is left as an exercise to the reader [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). You will also correctly give up on the river with the busted flushdraws and bet/fold the pairs. God you are good.

Let's examine the pairs:
3/47 times you turn a J. He folds immediately 16% of the time. 3% of the time he has qt and let's just say he calls the river with it UI in this special case. Your equity with the J vs. his range that doesn't fold is 55%.

So you win 4.25 BB 16% of the time.
You win 6.25 BB 46% of the time.
You lose 3 BB 38% of the time.

Using the same logic with the 8, he folds immediately 25% of the time and your equity vs. that range is 55%.

So you win 4.25 BB 25% of the time.
You win 6.25 BB 41% of the time.
You lose 3 BB 34% of the time.

Now let's examine the flushdraws. Depending on the card, he will fold immediately ~ 33% of the time and your equity vs. his range will be ~28%.

So you win 4.25 BB 33% of the time.
You win 6.25 BB 19% of the time.
You lose 2 BB 48% of the time.

So eV of turn is:
(4.25*.16+6.25*.46-3*.38)*3/47 + (4.25*.25+6.25*.41-3*.34)*3/47+(4.25*.33+6.25*.19-2*.48)*10/47 = .67 BB

So it looks like you just made it (recall, it cost you .5 BB to get yourself into this situation). Now throw in the fact that sometimes he picks up a flushdraw or gutshot and correctly calls your c/r on the turn and it becomes very close. Throw in him correctly folding when the club comes on the river and I'm pretty sure you start to lose.

I always make calc errors when i do this much arithmetic so please point them out.

[DeathDonkey]

Pretty much think Oink is right on here. I often check/call this flop (and I can have soooo many different hands to do that). If your range for check/calling here makes it a mistake with J8s then IMO the problem is with your range, not with this monster of a hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2) Start calling good Kx once in a while so that villains that can hand read isnt putting you on such a narrow range when you c/r this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

good point there oink. I tried to express that earlier in the thread. I think it is very important to mixup your lines at the table with both made and air, and to keep in mind what you have done recently against the villain in question. Poker players have relatively short memories, and they'll remember if they caught you c/r'ng with air last time. They'll also remember if the last two times they called you down you were c/r'ing a pair.

So I think in this spot you need to both c/r and c/c. And you should do the same with your made hands (obv c/r more with Kx and c/r more with weaker made hands). Mixing up your line is going to make it the most difficult for the villain to play back at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

mixing up your play so that you sometimes 3-bet k9s-kts or kt-kjo is not an important part of poker imo. Go ahead and do it, maybe it makes you a few extra bucks at the end of the year?

It only counters a small portion of my argument anyhow and it is almost never gonna change the way the villain plays a hand against you.

Not 3-betting kqo and kjs is just dumb.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
If your range for check/calling here makes it a mistake with J8s then IMO the problem is with your range, not with this monster of a hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm, that's a good point that my calc didn't consider (I looked at Jc8c in a vacuum and looked at a villain who plays the turn decently iff we have a pretty small range of hands).

poker calcs blow up so damn fast, i dunno how guys like thebryce ever bother to do them!

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Not 3-betting kqo and kjs is just dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest I dont really think this is the issuue altho I tend to agree with you.

The point of this thread IMO is to not fold that flop. Do whatever it takes with your other hands here to make it profitable to either c/r or c/c.

There will be so many hands in your range that would like to peel this flop if they can get a free river a fair portion of the time, but if villain 2nd barrels 100% the peel gets closer to neutral EV if not -EV.

Inducing villains to give you free rivers is just huge and it also makes it easier to put them on a hand when they 2nd barrels

I have never been a great fan of just calling Kx here with the intention of raising a turn and I think its suboptimal in a vacuum. But against a villain that 2nd barrels a lot I think you need to do it partly for value and partly to get him to check behind more.

[vmacosta]

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[ QUOTE ]
Not 3-betting kqo and kjs is just dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest I dont really think this is the issuue altho I tend to agree with you.

The point of this thread IMO is to not fold that flop. Do whatever it takes with your other hands here to make it profitable to either c/r or c/c.

There will be so many hands in your range that would like to peel this flop if they can get a free river a fair portion of the time, but if villain 2nd barrels 100% the peel gets closer to neutral EV if not -EV.

Inducing villains to give you free rivers is just huge and it also makes it easier to put them on a hand when they 2nd barrels

I have never been a great fan of just calling Kx here with the intention of raising a turn and I think its suboptimal in a vacuum. But against a villain that 2nd barrels a lot I think you need to do it partly for value and partly to get him to check behind more.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are all very good points. If we *occasionally* slowplay Kx, A2/Q2, and a few A-hi hands here then I imagine we can make it very nearly breakeven against any strategy (assuming 40%+ button steal range).

Obviously when a player plays passively postflop then we can always peel here.

However, I think it's generally important to stay away from toy rules of thumb and try and come up with real evidence for doing the things we do. Perhaps we could run a pt query on your database oink (mine's too small for stuff like this)?

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]


Do whatever it takes with your other hands here to make it profitable to either c/r or c/c.


[/ QUOTE ]

common guys, what does this even mean? we are not playing against telepaths. unless they played thousands of hands against you they have no idea how you play those "other hands" on that board. by changing your strategy with "other hands" you won't change the profitability of c/r or c/c with the current hand by much.

here's why. the profitability depends much more directly on _his_ strategy, which depends on several factors, your personal history with him being only one of them and not even the most important one. your personal history, in turn depends partly on how you've chosen to play all those "other hands" but it depends even more on the cards that you and he have been dealt.

so all in all your chosen strategy with "other hands" is only a minor component of a minor component of profitability.