PS 5-10 AK 3bet pot

[TheWorstPlayer]

check flop, fold turn is best line. you don't have the best hand. you have no pot odds. you have no implied odds. so you fold. that's how +EV poker works.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
check flop, fold turn is best line. you don't have the best hand. you have no pot odds. you have no implied odds. so you fold. that's how +EV poker works.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I really disagree. I think hero played the hand optimally. It just didnt work out.

[TheWorstPlayer]

ur wrong. listen to snipes et alia. (i just went back and read thread.) push is terrible. but dont see why in hell they all get from 'push is terrible' to 'call is good'. you're drawing to an obvious hand (no implied odds) with no pot odds. yuck. you are allowed to fold, you know.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
ur wrong. listen to snipes et alia. (i just went back and read thread.) push is terrible. but dont see why in hell they all get from 'push is terrible' to 'call is good'. you're drawing to an obvious hand (no implied odds) with no pot odds. yuck. you are allowed to fold, you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you say we dont have pot odds? villain bet 200 into 275, ignoring the fact villain and hero have eff. 670 behind (so about a pot bet on the river)

how can we have reverse implied odds? its not like we can give credit for KoW to have a flush, what flush does he have? KQh would be the only possibility, unless he's calling w/ low suited connectors, too, which would mean he'd have to open them in that spot too. So I think the queen for the straight is always live too.

also, you say we dont have implied odds, what if villain has Kh or Qh? (AK/AQ respectively) you think for the pot bet on the end, it doesnt get in the middle?

lastly, our overs, if kow is raising/calling rr with small pairs (which he may well have here) we have ace/king...

so, at the minimum we have 12 outs, which would mean with no implied odds the call of 200 into 275 (we need 29% equity, 12 outs gives us ~27% equity). so by virtue of that call > fold.

also, sometimes we have ~17 outs or w/e (~39% equity) in the event we win in a checkdown vs 99 or air or JQ or whatever.

[Gary Stevenson]

HEK, snipes said "calling>raising>folding" as did most responses from what i could tell.

[TheWorstPlayer]

this analysis is not right. why would they pay off with Kh on a heart river? what are they putting you on? and what are you doing on a board pairing heart river?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
this analysis is not right. why would they pay off with Kh on a heart river? what are they putting you on? and what are you doing on a board pairing heart river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Qh

all in

[TheWorstPlayer]

WOT is not stupid enough to put you on Qh. And you just got stacked - sounds like reverse implied odds to me. I'm 100% positive that calling the turn is a losing move if your plan is only to win the hand at showdown.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
WOT is not stupid enough to put you on Qh. And you just got stacked - sounds like reverse implied odds to me. I'm 100% positive that calling the turn is a losing move if your plan is only to win the hand at showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

w/e dov, you went to princeton, run the numbers. its a pos ev call, therefore you should never be folding here. the question is whether pushing is better, and i think it is, although i am not so pretentious nor dogmatic as to insist that i am right.

[TheWorstPlayer]

i have run the numbers. it sure as hell looks -ev to me. ofc it's dependent on assumptions, but WOT is good and will not pay you off if you hit your flush. maybe he pays you off if you hit your straight, but maybe you pay him off. you probably always pay him off when he boats up over your flush. i really dont see how it can be +EV at all to call the turn. and pushing is really puke bad. you're expecting him to either think that you
a)checked FD on flop and
b)pushed when you hit on turn

or

a)checked overpair on flop and
b)pushed when flush hit on turn

No way.