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#13
04-24-2006, 12:32 PM
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Re: Im Lost
leading is good if you think he'll slow down with a set but some players just don't care if the board has 3 flush and will blast away at the turn because they have top set
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#15
04-24-2006, 01:00 PM
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Re: Im Lost
I would advocate a check here. He may get away from a Queen here if you bet out since an over and a spade came. IF he bets 750 I would checkraise all in, since it would be likely he had a decent hand with the turn strength and might think he has correct odds to call. If he bets 300 and he would do this with flushes more likely than a pot sized, bet I would checkraise the min here. If you sense his 300 bet as weak then I advocate a check call and moderate half pot donk on all rivers. On non spade rivers he may make a crying call with a Q or weak A in case you missed a turn spade draw and may very well raise with decent 2 pair hands. He will also raise his flushes on nonspade rivers in which case you will get paid off. I doubt it very likely that he has the nut spade draw, but even if he does, you are not getting away from your flush in these heads up blind contests. The setback to this play is that your opponent may check behind on the turn, given that this is a scare card for his hand. However, the only hands I see checking behind here are one of the bottom pairs, or a Q. These hands will probably fold to any amount of strength when you bet the turn so I think this helps earn us a call on the river. We do lose in those cases where the BB will draw with a pair and a moderate flush draw 9 and below and when the BB has a naked K of spades. I think the value of checking though has a lot more upside than betting.
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#16
04-24-2006, 01:27 PM
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Re: Im Lost
if you check, and his range is tight and solid on the flop, and this guy is a capable player, he is going to check behind with most of his possible holdings. the reasoning being that it's a likely possibility that you called his flop raise with a flush draw (since i'm sure he knows you're not a donkey, after you call OOP he can narrow you down to a pretty big hand or a flush draw).
so leading is best.
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#17
04-24-2006, 01:33 PM
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Re: Im Lost
i think people are giving him too narrow of a hand range on the flop.
that might be my fault with the descriptions, but he is still a LAGish TAG. his range on the flop certainly isnt just sets and huge draws.
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#18
04-24-2006, 01:40 PM
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Re: Im Lost
ahh, ok. i still like a bet, maybe smallish, because he HAS to be cognizant of the fact you could very well have had a flush draw on the flop.
need more information on his tendencies. does he 2 barrel often? what about 3 barrel? does he bet when checked to? if you don't have any of this information, you have to lead.
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#19
04-24-2006, 01:48 PM
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Re: Im Lost
flop is good.
On turn c/r all in. He'll fire again with his KQ/QJ for sure, probably planning to fold to you c/r. However if you open push, he folds. He bets and calls with a set, KsQx as well. Basically, you get an extra bet from him with marginal hands and get paid from his big hands for sure.
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#20
04-24-2006, 02:36 PM
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Re: Im Lost
I'm gonna c/r ai as well here. I think a lead pretty much sucks since he might be on air/weak holdings here a lot of the time and might just give up if we lead, and that A of spades is an excellent bluff card. If he bets 750 it's obvious you're gonna have to go allin since he's most likely giving up when pot is 2450 and hes got 1750 left on river. If he bets 300, we'll have have 1550 pot with 2200 left to bet, so that's a different ballgame. If you do call, you'd obviously have to check river as well. Do you think he's capable of firing a 3rd barrel if you only c/c here on a lot of rivers? If you do, I guess you can call, but I reckon a lot of (thinking) players would just give up when you just call that 300 bet and check to them on the river.
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