#11
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Re: thoughts on flop?
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The problem here is that I think it's most likely that SB has a big draw. [/ QUOTE ] I have no idea what these opponents are calling with preflop, but if the SB has a big draw and not a set, doesnt that improve our hero's chances? That means that there is SOME chance that he can win by hitting his overcards, especially if the CO is in there with an overpair <= KK. It might nullify his gutshot draw, but open other outs at the same time. |
#12
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Re: thoughts on flop?
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I have no idea what these opponents are calling with preflop, but if the SB has a big draw and not a set, doesnt that improve our hero's chances? [/ QUOTE ] Not by much, since the set is only a problem if Hero hits his flush and the board pairs. The problem with your 36% number is that a lot of it comes from set-over-set and big-pair-vs-set situations where your str8 draw is good and they don't have hearts. This is extremely optimistic. I just don't buy that these guys are dumb enough to play these kinds of hands without good side cards. It's the likelihood that their sidecards are eating so many of your draws that makes this a fold for me, albeit marginal. |
#13
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Re: thoughts on flop?
It's really quite close. I would've played every decision point up to this differently, but getting here the way you did, in the heat of battle I'm probably putting the chips in. Running some basic numbers, it looks close, unless someone is out of line OR you're up against two similar hands.
I have no idea about jdags Omaha game, but I've logged tons of hours with batoelrob, and have known him to push with relatively weak draws. I call here, but I fold preflop unless jdags is the dead money in the game. |
#14
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Re: thoughts on flop?
I don't like to fold the nut flush draw on the flop when it is all in 3 ways. All in now.
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#15
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Re: thoughts on flop?
Aces,
Would the 3 being suited to the J for example change this into a call preflop for you? Also, this is just a guess, but is Jdags John Dagostino? Ricky |
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