Hand Analysis--Drawing to flush in multiway pot

[Toe-Knee]

Grunch...

Preflop- I raise, you've got a good hand that plays well in a lot of situation push that expectaion now.

Flop- If I raised PF I bet out, the way this played I checkraise once again for value.

Turn- Looks delicious

River- I would have raised MP2's bet, you hit your flush why aren't you raising here? Yeah it's possible someone has a boat but there's no real reason to suspect this before the river. After the river action I can see button could definitly have a boat, unless he's nutty, then he could have a lot.

[Toe-Knee]

[ QUOTE ]
As some cerebral exercises, let's take a look at a couple other situations where we raise preflop. Suppose the button isn't a maniac and at least a little tight--aggro or passive.

Suppose we raised preflop, button treys, we call. Same flop, we check, button bets, we checkraise, button treys, we cap, he and the field calls.

Turn action is the same: BB bets out, we call, button raises, field calls.

What's our river play?

What if the button called our raise preflop, raised our flop bet, we trey, button caps. Same turn and river action. Whatcha doing?

[/ QUOTE ]

One for agressive and one for passive??? I really don't know damb, I'm gonna have to think about this. This would be a bitch to fold, I dunno if I could do it.

[Hoss Ballgag]

1. Raise Preflop.

2. Check-raise the flop.

3. Call the turn.

4. Call your mom after seeing the river and tell her you are taking down a monster and that you can finally afford to reimburse her for the lamp you broke in the 5th grade.

[OrigamiSensei]

:grunch:
Some reads on the opps would be very helpful.

First of all you need to be raising that hand pre-flop. Part of your issue in this hand is that you had someone raise behind you and because villain is on the button his range could be a bit wider than usual. If you had raised the reaction by the button might have helped to define the opposing hand.

When the flop comes you have flopped about the best draw you could imagine - a nut flush draw and a one card draw to the broadway straight. I ran the poker stove numbers and even if villain holds AA or QQ you still have 33% equity in this 5-way pot! In other words you need to do SOMETHING more than check/call on the flop and there is a dead kitten lying at your feet when you check/call.

In this case I think the right thing to do is take a chance on the check/raise because you expect the button to bet. Get the overcalls and then hit your opponents up for another bet (or two if button 3-bets which you don't mind). If button 3-bets play him for AA or QQ and don't cap unless you have at least two other callers. If button checks drop a couple cuss words and take your free card. Unless someone gets lucky and fills a boat you will win the hand if you hit your draw, you have 12 good outs.

When the turn pairs the board what you do should depend on how button behaved the previous round. If button checked through or simply called your check-raise go ahead and lead out. If button 3-bet you on the flop just check/call since it's a huge pot and you don't want to fold here. If another opponent wakes up they probably have trip 2s and you don't have to worry about them unless the river matches something on the board again.

Same on the river. If button was passive lead out; if button was aggressive check/call.

As you played the river I see a real problem - if you weren't raising MP2's bet I'm not sure why you would call the 3-bet and the cap. That's incredibly passive. Personally I think you should raise and call if MP2 and Button cap. I'm reading MP2 for a smaller flush and who knows what Button started with, but there are possibilities MP2 has a bizarre holding for a boat and maybe Button had AA or QQ all along. The problem is you never put the pressure on button to define his hand.

This is the type of hand I think it's okay to lose lots of money on by playing aggressively since these kinds of oppotunities don't come around very often and the payoff is huge when you succeed.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]

River- I would have raised MP2's bet, you hit your flush why aren't you raising here? Yeah it's possible someone has a boat but there's no real reason to suspect this before the river. After the river action I can see button could definitly have a boat, unless he's nutty, then he could have a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like going for overcalls on this river. MP2 betting out is scary enough but with hero raising the other two players will probably fold hands like AK and AJ maybe even as strong as AQ.

[OrigamiSensei]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose we raised preflop, button treys, we call. Same flop, we check, button bets, we checkraise, button treys, we cap, he and the field calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the decision whether we cap on the flop depend on how many callers we have? I'm almost certain I don't want to cap this heads-up and I don't think I cap it with only one other caller either, although I'm open to discussion and persuasion. With two or three other callers I agree, cap it without hesitation.

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose we raised preflop, button treys, we call. Same flop, we check, button bets, we checkraise, button treys, we cap, he and the field calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the decision whether we cap on the flop depend on how many callers we have? I'm almost certain I don't want to cap this heads-up and I don't think I cap it with only one other caller either, although I'm open to discussion and persuasion. With two or three other callers I agree, cap it without hesitation.

[/ QUOTE ]

We probably have equity verses two opponets. Here is what I'd consider a realistic possibility:

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 2c Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Jc 369 40.86 525 58.14 9 1.00 0.414
Qd Ah 524 58.03 379 41.97 0 0.00 0.580
Qs Jd 1 0.11 893 98.89 9 1.00 0.006

We wouldn't even been losing money on a raise here if villian flopped the nuts:

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 2c Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Jc 306 33.89 588 65.12 9 1.00 0.344
Ad Ah 587 65.01 316 34.99 0 0.00 0.650
Qs Jd 1 0.11 893 98.89 9 1.00 0.006

[OrigamiSensei]

Niediam, thanks for running those numbers but we have to account for the possibility the other opponent is staying in because of a club flush draw. Button could be holding the club queen with QQ and and MP2 could be drawing to a flush as well (a possibility borne out by the later betting). Every club out there knocks down our equity while leaving button's the same. Given 9 clubs in the deck and 8 opponent hole cards we expect to have 9*8/47 or just a little over 1.5 clubs out against us. Given that so many opponents are hanging in there the possibility that one of the has a flush draw as well is fairly high. If someone is hanging in there on a gutshot and they have a 10 we're knocked down even further. Doing a 3-way equity calculation and giving MP2 two clubs knocked our equity down to 28%. The basic problem is that Button has a made hand, maybe with some redraws to a boat but essentially a made hand. His equity is pretty much set right now. Meanwhile ours is radically dependent on what our opponents holds and how many of our outs they have taken away. Granted, we're being generous in assuming Button has AA or QQ but I think a flop cap is too marginal and maybe -EV with only one other caller. I still want two more opponents in the hand to do it.

Board: Ac 2c Qh
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.8272 % 28.83% 00.00% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 69.1628 % 69.16% 00.01% { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs }
Hand 3: 02.0100 % 02.00% 00.01% { Any other 2 clubs }

[OrigamiSensei]

I also ran some 3-way equity numbers loosening up Buttons range to any Ace-broadway or pocket queens.

Board: Ac 2c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.9159 % 36.71% 00.20% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 58.1985 % 57.97% 00.23% { any ace-broadway, pocket queens }
Hand 3: 04.8856 % 04.86% 00.02% { any 2 clubs }

This says it's MARGINALLY profitable to cap with one caller. Honestly I don't think this is the right place to push such a small edge - if indeed we have an edge since I did loosen up that range a fair amount.

I see this as a case where we have had a significant equity change within a street as opposed to a change between streets. We had the equity edge for the initial check-raise but I don't think we have the equity edge for the cap with only three players.

We also have not done any calculations to see if leading out is better than the check-raise but I don't feel like going through all those numbers right now. My inclination is to think that a free card is not a tragedy if button checks through, but button will bet for us at least 80% of the time given the pre-flop raise. If button raises our lead the rest of the field will be faced with two cold. But our hand plays best in a multi-way pot so we don't want to do that. But if button bets we get overcallers and then get to bump it again when our opponents feel more tied to the pot (an emotion we looove in calling stations). They will almost certainly call a single raise and are more likely to call two this time around if button 3-bets. In almost all cases this will build a larger pot for us than if we have simply led out.

[Str8Fish]

If I were to play this hand, I would have bet out on the flop. You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 more outs to T's. BB raising behind you would have helped to protect your hand. It sucks but I don't think you can lay down your nut flush here.