Short stack problems FTOPS $1K

[luckychewy]

1) shove
2) fold
3) close but looks like a shove after playing w/ sng pt - mainly cause we are going thru blinds after this hand and if it's breakeven(or slightly +) in cEV i'd rather take it to potentially create future more +cEV spots
4) shove

[Rekwob]

shove 1 and 4, probably 3 as well

[Todd Terry]

2-4 I'd shove without even thinking about it, 1 is somewhat Villain-dependent, but I'd probably fold. I'm surprised so many people want to fold in hand 2.

[curtains]

Fold hand 1 against a good player, but against a random player it's almost certainly correct to push, and it's not going to be very close. They have to call way too loose for over half their stack.

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold hand 1 against a good player, but against a random player it's almost certainly correct to push, and it's not going to be very close. They have to call way too loose for over half their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you aware of any modeling that has been done that accounts for the fact that everyone else has folded around to the blinds in determining BB's hand range (i.e., if it's been folded around, he's 10% more likely to have a top 15% hand, something like that) and what if any effect that should have in a decision like this?

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold hand 1 against a good player, but against a random player it's almost certainly correct to push, and it's not going to be very close. They have to call way too loose for over half their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
ty, it's funny how no one even mentions this, re: BB's skill level (including myself obv).

According to SNGPT, villain has to call 30% or wider for 84o to be a bad push, i.e. 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs. I think most would fold the lower end of that and call like 22+, any ace, KTs+,KJo+,QJs,QJo,JTs or something.

On the flip side villain has to assume you're pushing basically ATC to call very wide, so pushing should be good vs most players if you're unknown to each other yeah? Or do you assume your average player pushes ATC here and call that wide?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold hand 1 against a good player, but against a random player it's almost certainly correct to push, and it's not going to be very close. They have to call way too loose for over half their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
ty, it's funny how no one even mentions this, re: BB's skill level (including myself obv).

According to SNGPT, villain has to call 30% or wider for 84o to be a bad push, i.e. 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs. I think most would fold the lower end of that and call like 22+, any ace, KTs+,KJo+,QJs,QJo,JTs or something.

On the flip side villain has to assume you're pushing basically ATC to call very wide, so pushing should be good vs most players if you're unknown to each other yeah? Or do you assume your average player pushes ATC here and call that wide?

[/ QUOTE ]

Surprised, thought they could be a bit looser than that and itd still be a good push.

[mackyg12]

IMO,

1)Shove
2)Fold
3)Fold
4) Get it in...gamble

[TheNewf]

Hand 1 depends on BB, usually shove unless he's good. I shove the others basically always.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold hand 1 against a good player, but against a random player it's almost certainly correct to push, and it's not going to be very close. They have to call way too loose for over half their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
ty, it's funny how no one even mentions this, re: BB's skill level (including myself obv).

According to SNGPT, villain has to call 30% or wider for 84o to be a bad push, i.e. 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs. I think most would fold the lower end of that and call like 22+, any ace, KTs+,KJo+,QJs,QJo,JTs or something.

On the flip side villain has to assume you're pushing basically ATC to call very wide, so pushing should be good vs most players if you're unknown to each other yeah? Or do you assume your average player pushes ATC here and call that wide?

[/ QUOTE ]

Btw I just ran it myself and as I suspected the numbers were off. 84o seems to be a good push against the following range:

33+,A2+,K3o+,K2s+,Q6o+,Q4s+,J8o+,J7s+,T9o,T8s+

I would never expect a random player to make a call with this range. Please in the future try not to trick me into thinking my math instincts are so wrong! Okay maybe because of bunching the BB can be a bit tighter than that and its -EV for us, but not by a ton. It should be completely clear cut push against a random player.


Soulman, my suspicion as to why you got the wrong results was that:

1. you got the antes wrong
2. You didn't set it to CeV
3. You are using some kind of "minimum edge" feature