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  #11  
Old 10-26-2007, 10:43 AM
SABR42 SABR42 is offline
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Default Re: $50 AQs flops a flush draw

Also, I call cause I love to gamb00l obv.
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  #12  
Old 10-26-2007, 10:49 AM
FireStorm FireStorm is offline
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Default Re: $50 AQs flops a flush draw

Fold, this screams set, and you may have outs that are already dead to another flush draw.
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  #13  
Old 10-26-2007, 03:44 PM
illini43 illini43 is offline
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Default Re: $50 AQs flops a flush draw

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a very very close call in terms of EV. I would probably pass here and give up the tiny bit of EV you might have. If this was a tournament, I would probably call - but it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is backwards!

[/ QUOTE ]

After looking at this again, I disagree with my analysis of taking a slightly EV gamble in regards to cash and tournaments. In reality, you should call in either situation, tournament or cash, if you have a slightly +EV decision, even if it is high variance.

Obviously, tournaments have situations where making a razor thin +cEV (c = chip) call is incorrect given jumps in pay levels, etc. In cash games, you are throwing away $, even if only a few dollars each time you fold in a +EV spot.

Given the range of the likely set-holder, if you can remotely put a hand that isn't a set or a mega-combo draw (like AK) I think this is a call. However, that is truly opponent specific, so I really don't know what I would do here. Against a typical player I probably would call because I don't think a range of "set only + combo draw (FD+OESD)" is broad enough to cover some other holdings he might have.

I still hate this spot, but I think I would call after re-evaluating my flawed logic, even though it won't give you the best feeling in the world.
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  #14  
Old 10-26-2007, 04:05 PM
wikemang wikemang is offline
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Default Re: $50 AQs flops a flush draw

Priced in = call. If this is +EV you should be calling. I didn't do the math, but there it is.
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