AA ip, usual raised pot, dry board, TAG donks big all the way

[Btch_Im_Cuter]

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Looks like 55 or 99 to me. When he full pots the turn I think I am tempted to fold there. If I dont fold there I think the river is an easy fold.

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I think it is too weak to call on flop in order to just fold on turn against almost unknown and potentially agressive opponent. People make pot size bets not only for value.

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HOWEVER people should have to work much harder than this to get full value from the weakest parts of your calling range. Folding should be default here IMO. (Obviously not against aggro opponents, but people should have to prove themselves competent and aggro before getting paid off like nobody's business.)

[Erikson]

The turnbet on that J really sucks. He could even do this w JJ considering his preflop range. 14 PFR guys don't necessarily reraise JJ pre. He could also be "semi-bluff-donking" QT.
I think I fold the turn, it just looks as if he has it.
Agree w/ Big_Jim on river action.

[JFsports]

I'd fold the river, his line is really strong. I think the only hand you beat here is AK and I don't think he has it that often

[MATT111]

I can`t fault looking him up although I do think calling the flop and folding the turn is the best play in a vacuum. Calling the turn and folding the river is ok but once he bets the turn like this you`ll be facing a river push like 80% of the time.
Raising the flop again is not a good play unless you have a specific reason to.

[mustmuck]

Mmm. Hate the river spot, and obv you could make a case for folding the turn. Nothing has changed on the river, so he's got to expect to be looked up here a fair bit after you call the turn. I agree that you pretty much only beat AK if it's a value bet, so calling here means that you have to think that there's a big chance villain just got way out of line. Have you noticed if he usually bets pot or not? The full pot on the turn was perfect for letting him shove the river, but I don't know if I give unknowns credit for noticing this.

[friend_]

I absolutely dont understand the line of just calling the flop in order to fold on turn in exception against a total nit.
First of all, I think villain has a little chance of having a K in this spot (he probably would reraise with AK pf + there is no sence for TAG to bet TP for value OOP against tight pf raiser). So, the most probable hands I see here are 55, 99 - 6 combos (in this case he wants us to raise) and JTs, QTs - 8 combos(in this case he wants us to fold).
If he has 99 and 55 the flop raise will give us all needed information about his hand, there is no need to call and wait for turn (although we have a little chance of spiking an ace on turn).
But at least half of the time he will have a draw here and by calling we give him an almost free chance to hit his draw + we put our hand under the danger of firing the second and even third barrel with busted draw.

Anyway I cant fold on turn here. By calling on flop we didnt show much and he may easily do this turn bet here with JT, or still possible AK, KQ and other weak holdings.
So, at this moment I find Big Jim's point of view the most reasonable.

[mustmuck]

I'll preface this by saying that I'm just back from having a few drinks.

Your logic makes no sense to me. I have no idea why you think him leading the flop means that he has little chance of having a king (ignoring later streets). You've suddenly added in the fact that you're a "tight preflop raiser", although you didn't see fit to mention this before. You've also only played 44 hands with this guy, so neither or you really has a clue how the other plays. You don't even have any proof that he's giving any thought to how you play. I also think that saying he's going to have a draw "at least half the time" on this board is ridiculous.

For me the crunch is when he full pots the turn out of nowhere. If he has always bet pot then it's meaningless, but most people don't bet full pot here. This combined with the river bet really makes me want to fold the river.

[AAismyfriend]

I would fold the river, and I think folding the turn is best even though I probably wouldn't since i'm too stubborn. I think you see a monster waaaaaaaay more than you see some random K or 67/JT type hands.

[ikestoys]

imo he has 55 or he's valuestacking himself... seems like a pretty [censored] board to donk a set/two pair