Standard?

[rzk]

i also think this is fine against a wtsd 31% player.

however, keep in mind that the standard deviation for wtsd is roughly 8% for 100hands, 2.7% for 1000hands, etc., as i calculated in a recent post. moreover, it's a bit more complicated than that. say you have 1000 hands on him. you can't make the conclusion that his wtsd = 31% +/-2.7%. that's because there are almost no players with wtsd 29%- and a lot of players with wtsd 33%+. in other words, the original distribution from which we got the wtsd number is not uniform. i won't spew off any more math but if we have a 1000 hands i would estimate his wtsd to be roughly 32.5% +/- 2.6%.


yourface,
i think the problem you yourself mentioned is big enough to deter us from the line you suggest. also if the river bricks villain might decide our raise makes no sense and make a wtf call.

[Absolution]

I like this and may even 3-bet the flop in these spots as a semi-bluff re-raise. The turn may be better though, but you should follow up on the river as Leader said. This is high variance and good advertising if you do end up getting called down.

[frenchpignouf]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you guys think about calling the turn to raise the river? this seems like the kind of guy who will b/f a hand as strong as 9x or maybe even a weak Q on the river if we raise (depending on our image). I think a turn raise is more likely to get called down because it is more likely to be a draw. also this line folds out the same better high card draws but doesn't leave us open to a turn 3bet semibluff

the biggest problem I can see with this is if he c/c the river with a mediocre showdownable hand like 9x that he may fold to a turn raise + river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with a bluf on the river but i'm not sure.

The cost of raising the turn and bet the river is around 1.6 BB because we can hit our straight (maybe just 1.55 BB because sometimes there is 3 bet on the turn). The cost of bluffing the river is 2BB.

He can fold a small pp on the turn but c/c the river. He can fold a very weak hand on the turn which has 6 'outs' against our bluf on the river (quite unlikely though).

Raising the turn is better than bluffing the river for the metagame imo.

There is many players who calldown ace high but just c/c the river if there is no raise on the turn. So we save a bet if we bluff the river and 2 bets if we give up in this spot.


The b/f line with a pair is quite rare, but vilain don't bet the river with 100% of his range. If he c/c with small pp and ace high and bet everything else maybe a bluf on the river is better.