NL50 KK in 3bet pot on JT8 flop

[Antinome]

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why didn't you include KK and AA in your analysis?

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Because that wasn't the range hennnerz postulated. As I said, I think his range is wider than that. I do think KK and AA are in his range, though I would depreciate AA somewhat, maybe call it 2 combinations. I would add a few (2) AK combinations, and a few (3) AQ combinations, and one 99.

And I think that still adds up to a call as played. That isn't the same as saying I think the hand was played optimally; I would probably check-call this hand all the way down.

[hennnerz]

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I think you are looking at TT JJ QQ. Fold.

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Board: 8d Tc Jc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.641% 46.26% 00.38% 5496 45.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 53.359% 52.98% 00.38% 6294 45.00 { QQ-TT }

That would be a call versus that range given dead moneys, call the rest on a non 9,Q turn. And I think his range is a little wider than that.

Consider that there are only 3 combinations each of TT,JJ, but 6 combinations of QQ that you beat. His gutshot outs versus your backdoor flush outs make it swing a little in his direction. As long as you play it so he can't get away from QQ, we'll be good. Embrace the variance.

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Nice post. Its just the way I am running that makes this a fold then [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]