MPTK against BB

[HouseCalls]

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I raise PF. Especially with the BB being tight. You should be able to get it heads up a lot.

Then, as played, I bet the flop. There is a good chance you have the best hand, so you should bet.

Then, as played, I fold to the turn raise. BB has TAGgish stats. I can't think of much that he would call two with on the flop and then get excited about a 3 on the turn, except for hands that have you in really rough shape.

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I've decided from now on I'm just going to follow Nix around the forum and agree with him [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Sibelius]

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Thing is, I JUST got a HUD, so I'm starting to get used to peaking at peeps' AF to see whether or not I'm ahead or blah blah blah. Let's say that this guys' stats are all the same (VP, PFR) but his aggression factor is x. What number am I starting to look at and say, oh, he might be bluffing...

Thanks ahead of time.
Nick

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Players that bluff raise the turn have usually AF > 2.5. These players are usually very LAGgy.

I think that player bluff raising the turn bluffs quite frequently, and I'm usually able to make a note of this quickly.

[NIX]

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I raise PF. Especially with the BB being tight. You should be able to get it heads up a lot.

Then, as played, I bet the flop. There is a good chance you have the best hand, so you should bet.

Then, as played, I fold to the turn raise. BB has TAGgish stats. I can't think of much that he would call two with on the flop and then get excited about a 3 on the turn, except for hands that have you in really rough shape.

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I've decided from now on I'm just going to follow Nix around the forum and agree with him [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] HC [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[NIX]

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Quick question: at about what AF are we starting to consider people as too aggressive (meaning it's correct to call a turn raise..not necessarily in this hand but...geez, poker is complicated, no?..in general, i guess is what I mean)?

Aussie, you mention that someone with an AF of 1.3 is not raising here without something that beats us, and you are totally right.

Thing is, I JUST got a HUD, so I'm starting to get used to peaking at peeps' AF to see whether or not I'm ahead or blah blah blah. Let's say that this guys' stats are all the same (VP, PFR) but his aggression factor is x. What number am I starting to look at and say, oh, he might be bluffing...

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AF isn't really a hard number that you can look at and say 'oh, he's passive' or 'oh, he super aggressive.' It works in relation to other stats. A 70/0/1 player is on the aggressive side since he's playing so many hands, where as a 12/8/1 player is somewhat passive as he has strong hands a lot that he doesn't bet.

Another thing to look at is how often someone folds on certain streets. If two players have an AF of say 2 and one of them folds 70% of the time on the turn and then comes out raising this time, there is a greater chance of him having a strong hand he is taking to showdown as opposed to someone who folds to turn bets 10% of the time. The second guy is raising a much higher percetange of turns that he sees making it less likely has a monster every time.

[Nick D]

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AF isn't really a hard number that you can look at and say 'oh, he's passive' or 'oh, he super aggressive.' It works in relation to other stats. A 70/0/1 player is on the aggressive side since he's playing so many hands, where as a 12/8/1 player is somewhat passive as he has strong hands a lot that he doesn't bet.

Another thing to look at is how often someone folds on certain streets. If two players have an AF of say 2 and one of them folds 70% of the time on the turn and then comes out raising this time, there is a greater chance of him having a strong hand he is taking to showdown as opposed to someone who folds to turn bets 10% of the time. The second guy is raising a much higher percetange of turns that he sees making it less likely has a monster every time.

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Excellent, excellent stuff. Thanks a lot, Nix.

Nick

[Smurph64]

*grunch from the cheap seats

First off protecting your hand at this level is a false assumption. Being first to act with middle pair its either a check/call (not me very often) or a raise for value.

Most times you get called and can continue or stop on the turn depending on how many call. If you get raised that is infinitely more valuable information to you than a check raise semi steal protection attempt by yourself.

Now you can check raise the river or turn if you hit your second pair. Your way you kill any future action and lose any chance of folding without looking like a moron and being slammed by anyone with eyesight at your table.

a flop bet gives you much more notice as to what the bb will do but a two bet call by him on the flop is a pretty clear sign he is doing pretty well and is probably ahead. No way I bet out on the turn.