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#11
08-14-2007, 07:07 AM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
Board: 7h 4s 5c 8d
Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 07.354% 03.98% 03.37% 312 264.00 { KdKh } Hand 1: 92.646% 89.27% 03.37% 6992 264.00 { 88-44, A6s, K6s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A6o, K6o, Q6o, J6o, 96o, 86o+, 74o+, 64o+, 54o } --- I'm getting 4:1 pot odds to call down. He has to be bluffing (or playing an overpair like a complete donkey) ~13% of the time for it to be breakeven. Or do you mean I should call and reevaluate river? 
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#12
08-14-2007, 07:35 AM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Board: 7h 4s 5c 8d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 07.354% 03.98% 03.37% 312 264.00 { KdKh } Hand 1: 92.646% 89.27% 03.37% 6992 264.00 { 88-44, A6s, K6s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A6o, K6o, Q6o, J6o, 96o, 86o+, 74o+, 64o+, 54o } --- I'm getting 4:1 pot odds to call down. He has to be bluffing (or playing an overpair like a complete donkey) ~13% of the time for it to be breakeven. Or do you mean I should call and reevaluate river? [/ QUOTE ] Not really. Against this guy you have to call the river IMO. But that range is to pessimistic. You need to remove or discount the worst off suited holdings like Q6o, J6o, 96o, 86o+, 74o+, 64o+, 54o since his preflop stats indicate he wont defend with those. (albeit small sample) I also think you need to put in 98s and 97s in his range as those hand makes plenty of sense. Finally hands like A8s, K6s will be in his range sometimes as well.
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#13
08-14-2007, 07:39 AM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
Oink,
Can you please stove a good range and post it. I usually make this calldown, but in this case my spidey senses just went tingling that he had a 6 and I decided to fold. I just want to see the mathematical reason for a calldown. Thanks.
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#14
08-14-2007, 07:42 AM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Oink, Can you please stove a good range and post it. I usually make this calldown, but in this case my spidey senses just went tingling that he had a 6 and I decided to fold. I just want to see the mathematical reason for a calldown. Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry. I am at work so no stove. But those off suit hands I mentioned weigh in pretty heavily so I dont think a call down is that bad at all. In particular since he makes weird bluffs so he can have other hands than those you used.
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#19
08-14-2007, 12:35 PM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sorry. I am at work so no stove. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you work? [/ QUOTE ] Check out his location [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I havent got the balls to make a living solely from poker. BTW I am 2 months away from being a PhD in economics. It would be pretty silly not to finish it. Tho I hate it! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#20
08-14-2007, 12:53 PM
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Re: I fold KK overpair on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
I havent got the balls to make a living solely from poker. BTW I am 2 months away from being a PhD in zzzzzzz . It would be pretty silly not to finish it. Tho I hate it! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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