FTOPS, deep ITM JJ hand... general help

[Tackleberry]

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There is no guarantee that if I make it 17k or 20k (I hate min rasises) AA or KK wouldn’t flat call. Knowing that they can CRAI on the flop.

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Surely, but in this case you´ve lost your stack anyway, so it doesn´t influence our decision here, doesn´t it? But in my case you have the chance (!!) to get away if he pushes. Which surely does not mean you have a guarantee ...

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After I make it 38k, I don’t expect any hand to call. If the guy is playing his hand he is shoving.

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This is clear as well - but do you want 99/TT to fold? Or do you expect it to shove? If you expect it to fold, why reraising?

Please don´t get me wrong - I´m trying to learn here, and I just don´t understand what our <u>big</u> RR should accomplish here. Worse hands will fold and better hands will call/shove. The only target I would aim at is preventing further callers from coming along. And this I reach with 17k as well ... with the side bonus that 99/TT will call me by getting the correct odds.

The simple question which should clear your point-of-view for me is the one I already posted: why are you raising to 38k instead of immediately pushing? Where is the difference? Is it just a principle, not to push with nearly 10 x pot size? That doesn´t sound convincing to me ... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[TimberBee]

How is the math if we raise to 25k and he pushes, assuming he only pushes AK, JJ+?

Pot: 5100 + 8500 + 25k + 66.7k = 105.3k
You have to call 50.2k to win 105.3k, which is 2.1:1.

Against his range, you are 1.73:1
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.585% 35.01% 01.57% 125907060 5645496.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.415% 61.85% 01.57% 222385788 5645496.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Hence, we can't raise 25k and fold. This is particulary true since he could raise a wider range because you have been so active.

If we raise to 17k, and he pushes, our odds is worse, but villain will probably push with a wider range. Let's try with a wider range, like 99+, AQ, AJs+.
pot: 5.1k + 17k + 75.2k = 97.3
Your potodds are 1.67:1

Against his range, you are 50/50, or 1:1.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.655% 49.69% 00.96% 331857516 6413436.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.345% 48.38% 00.96% 323114172 6413436.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So it's still a clear call.

If you raise to 38k, you obv can't fold if he pushes AK as well as QQ+, since the pot odds are overwhelming.

The last alternative is to call and play postflop poker, which is not that bad of a choice, since he is an Ep-raiser after all, and his range should be pretty defined. Plus, there is a chance someone will squeeze, giving you an easy descicion.

Looks like a hand where only folding is wrong, and it's all about finding the line that maximizes your EV.

EDIT: One more alternative is to push right away, which I don't really like, because I think only better hands will call, and the pot is not big enough for it to be the way to maximize the EV.

[betgo]

I actually wonder if the flat call may be the best play. If you standard reraise, you are essentially committing your whole stack in early position against an early position raiser. So reraising seems only slightly cEV+.

If you flat call, someone may squeeze light. You also may be able to draw for your set. You probably commit on a low flop, but you should get action from lower pps as well as higher ones.

You good also reaise to 18K and fold to a push. Sometimes villain flat calls a higher pp, but your reraise looks like KK/AA or a bluff.

Thinking it over, I kind of like a small reraise or flat call better than a standard reraise, as played, or a push.

You have a good hand here, but however you play it, you have only a slightly cEV+ situation.

[Todd Terry]

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If I make it 17k to go (which will prevent further callers from coming along) and Villain then pushes I assume a range of JJ+, AK. Against this range I´m a 2:1 dog, but just gets odds of 1.7:1 for a call. So I could find a fold and rest with a stack that still lets me play some good poker. Or am I wrong?

Other question: do you expect 99/TT to call your reraise to 38k? Do you expect AK to fold against a push? If not in both times - why aren´t we just pushing immediately then, if we plan to call Villain´s push anyway? I can see no difference here ...

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You're not quite a 2:1 dog against {JJ+, AK}, you have 36.5% equity, which is within a few tenths of a percent of 1.7:1 (I didn't check your 1.7:1 math, I'm assuming it's right). I'm not sure TT isn't part of Villain's range as well.

You have an M of 10, any reraise pot commits you, just jam it.

Edit: The jam looks weaker than the smaller reraise (at least to some people ("Why so much?"), you can always think about these things to death), so is more likely to generate calls from smaller pairs IMO.

[tomek322]

Obviously someone is results oriented.

He shoved, I obviously called. Villian had KK, gg, gl, nh etc.

EDIT: the more i think about this one, the more I think the flat call is best here, especially with the rest of the field left. If someone squeezes, that would make my decision easiest.

EDIT #2: a bigger part of the problem was I was short stacked basically the entire tournament. Got a rush of cards, jamming it with the short stack. Now I actually had a good stack with a SS mentality. perfect combonation for going broke with jacks.

[DDBeast]

I think I like a flat call here too. Betgo made good points. If called/reraised you're pretty much hoping for a flip. However if you just call you could get 77-TT to stack off when you couldn't with a reraise.