10NL: Lay down set of KK on all club flop? - Page 2

CaptainSubtext · #11 08-11-2007, 06:54 PM

What does w/e mean?
And if he doesn't has the aceHi flush on the flop (AcTx/JcTc etc.), was it horrible from him to even be in the pot or bet like this? Is that what you mean? What would you have done with a hand like AcTx/JcTc in the BB?

CaptainSubtext · #12 08-11-2007, 06:59 PM

Does anyone know if there is something of a shortlist of these kind of statistics (1% to flop a flush etc.) on 2+2?

Jzo19 · #13 08-11-2007, 07:02 PM

i dont want to do a pokerstove calculation (villain has a wide range +im lazy) but im sure u have enough equity in this hand to profitably push , if some1 wamts to do the math go'head

w/e =whatever

THoM. · #14 08-11-2007, 07:02 PM

w/e means whatever

fozzy71 · #15 08-11-2007, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know if there is something of a shortlist of these kind of statistics (1% to flop a flush etc.) on 2+2?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

CaptainSubtext · #16 08-12-2007, 03:27 AM

Thanks Fozzy71, that's what I was looking for.

Ok, this is what happened:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($7.90)
MP1 ($22.35)
MP2 ($4.35)
MP3 ($4.60)
CO ($4.70)
Button ($16.45)
SB ($8.40)
BB ($6)
UTG ($20.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.5, 6 folds, BB calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.05) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB raises to $2.4, Hero raises to $7.4, BB calls $3.10 (All-In).

Turn: ($12.05) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($12.05) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $12.05

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c 7c (flush, king high).
Hero has Ks Kd (full house, kings full of queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $13.95. 

After long deliberation I infact shoved, but now I know this is actually an ez shove because of his small stack. Tnx for the help.

CesareBorgia · #17 08-12-2007, 03:47 AM

There are 10 other clubs in the rest of the deck (47 unseen cards) that could've been dealt to your opponent. An estimate of the probability that he indeed has two clubs is (10/47)*(9/46)=0.042 which is slightly more than 4%. I may very well have missed something here, so feel free to correct me.

Of course this is not entirely fair, for instance, because a player is always slightly more likely to play a have preflop when it's suited.

Whatever the exact numbers, your opponent is highly more likely to have one club in the hole than two, which means you should take into account the possibility that he has a flush draw instead of a made flush in which case you want to make it as expensive as possible to draw out on you. That is probably why everyone including you and me thinks it's a good idea to push.

So although you had to suck out as it turns out in this specific case, I'm convinced that your play was the correct one.

anthb7210p · #18 08-12-2007, 03:47 AM

PUSH!!! he probably owns the ace of clubs, do not fold this, ever

choccypie · #19 08-12-2007, 04:31 AM

As above. I'd never fold trips on a board of otherwise undercards. He may or may not have a made flush and could well be semi-bluffing you.

YanP · #20 08-12-2007, 06:13 AM

On flop when he calls your bet pot = 1.05+2 = 3.05

He raises 1.4 leaving himself $3.10

If you put him in you’re putting in 4.5 to win a pot of $12
37.5% of the pot

Worst case scenario he has the flush you are 33% to win it.
If you factor in any other hands at all , club draw with AcKh, tt, 66 then you have to shove it, you're way ahead

Never fold top set is a great rule of thumb!

Die with a set if you have to