Is there really any value in calling here?

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling for set value here +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is $19.75 in the pot. Your opponent has has $27.55 left. So you are calling $4.75 to win 47.30.

You will miss 89% of the time. So 89 times you lose $4.75 for $422.75.

You will hit 11% of the time, but still lose occasionally to a bigger set or some other odd suckout. 11 * 47.30 = $520.00 - the times you lose. When you lose, you lose your stack. Looks coin-flippish/neutral EV.

Example flops and your equity...

Board: Ac 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.716% 78.72% 00.00% 49095 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 21.284% 21.28% 00.00% 13275 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: 2d 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.010% 91.01% 00.00% 64872 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 08.990% 08.99% 00.00% 6408 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: Ac Kc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.965% 60.97% 00.00% 32592 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 39.035% 39.03% 00.00% 20868 0.00 { JJ+ }


I am at work so I don't have time for any more math here, but it looks so close, I'd probably just fold and wait for a better spot. I don't like flipping.

I'd rather outplay the BB by stealing his loose calls by c-betting flops and by the fact that his raises turn his cards face up allowing you to play optimally against him (so far, given his small sample size). You will do better to set mine when he raises pre-flop and you just call with your PP (and maybe an additional caller or two).

If he's already played half his hands I'm guessing you are going to see more of it and he's going to be giving away his dough and going too far when he does finally get around to raising.

Disclaimer: Math probably not perfect but reasonable.

[DaycareInferno]

villain doesn't have enough money left behind to call for set value. i've seen some pretty extensive writeups on this subject here on 2+2, and i don't think any of them would have recommended this.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, remember that we don't gain villains entire stack every time we flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]True, it's definitely not 100% of the time but hard to nail an exact number. Has to be ridiculously high though right?

[Fiksdal]

nice analysis cubase

[cowboy billy]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone just call the CO raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, a raise vs a 60/35/3 CO with p9 OTB is standard, I'd only smoothcall for variation purposes some of the times, but generally I raise

I agree with you guys that this is close, so I think it's fine to lay it down

obv, if you're in the mood for gamb00l, call that isht and stack the fella!

[Triggerle]

When calling for set value don't forget that we will not always get paid off. Also, we will lose with a set sometimes, usually for the whole effective stack so 8:1 implied odds is not even close to enough. With all the dead money in there this seems borderline but I'd still prefer a fold.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

[hunt1897]

Easy fold. Probably was easy to call in the heat of the moment. But it is a fold.

[Maneh]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone just call the CO raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why ?!

We are way ahead of his range IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
$4.75 to win $52.55 (pot + bb's stack size)... looks +EV to me unless my math is screwy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone just call the CO raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Me!

[Antinome]

I'm not 3 betting this unless I'm willing to call a minraise and play poker afterwards. Which I am in this case.

AK is definitely in the default player's 4bet range esp if they have not had a chance to 'speak' yet IMO.

His minbet encourages me to think he has bet sizing issues which will betray the strength of his hand.

I'm in position.

So I'm calling this mostly for set value, but sometimes for taking away when he misses AK or an A falls and he's worried with QQ-KK.