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  #11  
Old 07-24-2007, 05:40 PM
mce86 mce86 is offline
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Default Re: NL 100: draw oop against big pair

Why are you raising 67s utg+1 would be my first question. Its just not a good hand from here IMO. Second, when he reraises, throw it away.
He might throw it away, but you need alot of help here. Id wait to see the turn development and then consider making a move. I think just calling here is worrysome and a turn raise will look alot more threatening. Plus, you could even hit!
Not to mention, how often do you see AA or KK get stacked here when you do have a set..all the time. Maybe he should lay it down, but he wont on the flop.
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  #12  
Old 07-24-2007, 05:46 PM
AFCBeer AFCBeer is offline
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Default Re: NL 100: draw oop against big pair

Regarding the preflop play:

Many players play SC and PPs the same way in these spots. Call the reraise, hope to hit and stack villain. What they don't realise is that SC's and PP's play completely DIFFERENT.

With PP's you flop a set and stack an overpair. With SC's you flop a DRAW. In this case the overpair usually bets you off the draw. And since the villain has an overpair, the semi-bluff all in has very little fold equity (against most villains). Even 150BB's is not deep enough for SC's while it is plenty for PP's IMHO.
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  #13  
Old 07-24-2007, 05:52 PM
chopchoi chopchoi is offline
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Default Re: NL 100: draw oop against big pair

Doesn't much matter what you do. You're a 45/55 dog right now, but the money already in the pot makes up for your disadvantage, so pushing is +ev. If you just call and the turn is a blank, you'll still have 30% pot equity, (26% vs a diamond) so if he bets less than the pot, you'll have to call there too. I think I like a call better than a push because you don't have much FE, and he'll be committed by the river and pay you off when you hit, but you can get away when you miss.
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  #14  
Old 07-24-2007, 06:59 PM
KurtSF KurtSF is offline
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Default Re: NL 100: draw oop against big pair

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Preflop is def. standard.

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I disagree

I think its pretty ugly

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They are 150bb deep so its not as bad.

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outside of a straight/flush/trips you rarely are far ahead, an overpair is drawing very live vs 2pr

my math sucks but I believe flopping trips+ is like 3% of the time or so, 2pr another ~2%

so like 5% of the time you are way ahead, usually way behind to coinflipping OOP

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Um, the odds of hitting two-pair, trips, OESD, FD or better (made straight or flush, etc.) combined are about 12%, about the same as hitting a set with a low pair.

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you probably won't get 150bb in on straight or trip boards, and the times the money goes in when you hit a flush he usually has a 7out draw twice, honestly there aren't that many good spots

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No, but you can get away from blank flops easily, you have fold equity also. If you're a fit-or-fold nit you can save yourself a lot of heartache by staying away from these hands and the gut-busting variance they produce. But if you're solid post-flop and comfortable playing draws aggressively these spots can be +EV.

From MP the OPs initial raise is totally standard, though from EP it is debatable. Calling the RR closing the action with another player in the pot and 150BBs deep is fine. I make that call 100%. Your mileage may vary.
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