$50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...

[tannenj]

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op,

literally no other way to play it.

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Why do you feel it's not even close between shoving and folding?

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here's a retardedly tight range for the villain (WAY too tight based on the weakish read we have, but bear with me for the sake of discussion):

Board: Ts 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.279% 41.08% 00.20% 16674 81.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 58.721% 58.52% 00.20% 23754 81.00 { JJ-TT, 88, Q9s, 97s, Q9o, 97o }

58.721/41.279 = 1.423:1, so if hero's getting at least that on a flop 3bet (i'll assume hero's shove has no fold equity), it's at least a breakeven play.

there's $16.50 of dead money in the pot, so hero's pot odds are $58.50/$42 = 1.393:1.

even if the villain's range is 100% near nuts, this is essentially a breakeven shove if there's no fold equity.

and there's no way the villain's range is even close to that tight, so i don't think this is close.

[barryc83]

i was first tannenj [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[tannenj]

10k fight yo? wait, this is unl. $10 fight yo? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Daniel LeClaire]

I don't think anyone can really criticize getting in here. I hate giving action to nits and his big raise seems like he's trying to protect against all the draws. I'd say you likely have 11 outs. If you don't mind variance shove it in. You will probably tilt him if you win.

[delta k]

Ya know if he made it $5000 to go we could find a fold I think. But here this is a really simple shove because calling here OOP sucks for obvious reasons and we clearly cannot fold w/ 13 outs to the nuts and maybe more if our A/K outs are clean (which they usually aren't but sometimes are).

[jessyj07]

It's only 12 outs and sometimes he makes a boat when we hit our hand. I just muck it.

[tannenj]

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It's only 12 outs and sometimes he makes a boat when we hit our hand. I just muck it.

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nothing personal, but this is the epitome of weak-tight unl thought processes

[jessyj07]

no offense taken buddy. i play pretty weak and don't embrace variance AND i think this is a -ev spot.

[gumpzilla]

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It's only 12 outs and sometimes he makes a boat when we hit our hand. I just muck it.

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nothing personal, but this is the epitome of weak-tight unl thought processes

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Against an opponent who is likely fairly passive, and considering there isn't that much dead money in there, I don't think this is a terrible spot to play it weak. It would be much different if the pot were bigger to start with, I think. EDIT: I personally feel I've been overplaying 12 out, as opposed to 15 out, draws. Against a regular for metagame purposes it can have extra merit, but a lot of the time that's not the issue at hand.

[Peter Harris]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] it