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#11
07-04-2007, 01:21 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. 
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#12
07-04-2007, 01:28 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] Basically, yes.
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#13
07-04-2007, 01:41 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
I did quite a few last fall. I played in either $1 and $2 increments following the charts on the Wizard of Odds. I made a profit on about 90% of the bonuses offered that were dollar for dollar and cashable with playthroughs 10x or lesser.
I kept the records in a notebook and can name the casinos.
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#14
07-04-2007, 01:58 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] yes, but you're not going to have a 10k balance with a playthrough of 10k.
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#15
07-04-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] No. If your balance is say $400, $200+$200 bonus and you do $50 bets it only takes 8 bad bets to go broke. Worst case scenario and you'll only have the opportunity to wager $400 and you're bust. In the long term you'll be getting the same amount of bonus as someone who bets $1 but because of all the times you bust quickly you'll do far less total wagering. Example, if I wager $100,000 less dollars than you over my 'career' and the house edge is 1%, well there's an extra $1000 EV my way.
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#16
07-04-2007, 10:48 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
Let's take two extremes.
100% $100 bonus. 30x playthrough. 0.5 HA (a bit high for blackjack, but that doesn't matter for this example) Scenario 1: Bet low (say $1 per hand). 100-3000*0.005 = 85 Scenario 2: Try to double up then grind it out low. (-100 + 300-3000*0.005) / 2 = 92
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#17
07-04-2007, 11:19 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
On bonuswhores before they shut down the casinos forum, this was known as "Galt's Epiphany" (named after a poster who coined this strategy).
By playing a cashable bonus more aggressively (larger bets), you can yield a higher EV. The difference can be miniscule or huge, depending on the bonus structure.
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#18
07-04-2007, 11:30 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The wagering requirements are generally in $ though, so you aren't giving up anything in terms of the house edge. [/ QUOTE ] What? [/ QUOTE ] If the playthrough is $10k, the house edge is the same whether I play one $10k hands or 10k $1 hands. It's just the variance that is different, surely? [/ QUOTE ] No. If your balance is say $400, $200+$200 bonus and you do $50 bets it only takes 8 bad bets to go broke. Worst case scenario and you'll only have the opportunity to wager $400 and you're bust. In the long term you'll be getting the same amount of bonus as someone who bets $1 but because of all the times you bust quickly you'll do far less total wagering. Example, if I wager $100,000 less dollars than you over my 'career' and the house edge is 1%, well there's an extra $1000 EV my way. [/ QUOTE ] Read his post.
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#19
07-07-2007, 12:57 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
Well, it doesn't work exactly like blackjack, but i wrote a program to generate random numbers between 0 and 1. anything over .5025 was a 'win'. Everything else was a loss. Here are the results for 10,000,000 bonuses. $200 BR and a $2500 WR.
bet size-----avr return 1/n-----187.5 1-------187.51 5-------187.82 10-----188.63 20-----189.98 25-----190.40 50-----192.06 100---193.84 200---195.01
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#20
07-07-2007, 02:05 PM
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Re: Blackjack EV Post
[ QUOTE ]
Well, it doesn't work exactly like blackjack, but i wrote a program to generate random numbers between 0 and 1. anything over .5025 was a 'win'. Everything else was a loss. Here are the results for 10,000,000 bonuses. $200 BR and a $2500 WR. bet size-----avr return 1/n-----187.5 1-------187.51 5-------187.82 10-----188.63 20-----189.98 25-----190.40 50-----192.06 100---193.84 200---195.01 [/ QUOTE ] This is right, higher risk of ruin means higher average return.
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