PS 9/360: AJs facing a raise from the CO w/ 12BBs

[Mr_Sterken]

You pushed and he called u with AA and u where out right?

His raise looks like a cheap steal and a big hand who wants to get reraised all in by the smaller stacks..
I think a push should show here some EV+, there is 8K in the pot and u have 25K.
I hate AJ but i would push here aswell to get a good shot to win the tournament.

[RobertJohn]

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Nice calculation ... but shouldn´t this

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My expectation =

(-25720)(.6064)+(29520)(.3936) = <u>-3 977.536 </u>


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be (-25720)(.6064)+(28520)(.3936) = <u>-4371,136</u>?

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Pot Before Action = 3800
He bets 4000, I shove for 25720. He calls the 21720 back to him, making the pot 55240.

55240-25720 = 29520.

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X &gt; 34% just to break-even.

If he calls with something like 55+ and AJ+, he needs to be raising a quarter of the time in that spot just for me to break-even (with this calling range).


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I don´t get this ... if you assume 55+, AJ+, we are speaking about a calling-range of about 8%. If he should fold 34% of his original raising-range, than he just has to raise with about 12% of his hands. This seems extremely (for not to say unrealistically) tight, given his position.

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I was tripping for a second there, obvious error. I wrote it up hastily, thanks for pointing that out.


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Ah ... here is my final calculation (assuming that he calls 45.7 percent of his original raising range):

EV = (0,543*7000) + 0,457* [(-25720)*(0,6064) + (28720)*(0,3936)] = 5640,366


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If Villain folds we win 7800 (4000 raise + 3800 initial pot [1k/2k/100 ante, 8-handed])

Besides that, with your assumptions, that looks right.

Here I rewrote one:

Since we have an Ace and a Jack and he calls with 55 or better and AJ up, he will call 81/1225 ~ 7% of the time.

So if he raises 17%, he will call 41% of the time and fold 59%. AJs has 55.12% equity against 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+.

EV =

.59(7800)+.41((-25720)(.4488)+(29520)(.5512)) = 6540.59

Yeah, a no brainer shove!

[Tackleberry]

You are perfectly right - I missed the antes!! Sorry for that ...

[RobertJohn]

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You are perfectly right - I missed the antes!! Sorry for that ...

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No problem, I don't mind someone critiquing my numbers for inaccuracies. Helps us both hopefully.

I thought you missing the antes was the problem given the difference.

[RobertJohn]

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CONS:

· He is the biggest stack and thus he might be more willing to make a call with a hand that the other Villains would fold

· There is some value in surviving at this stage b/c of the pay jumps.

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The first is a huge plus, you don't mind him calling wide since you've got a good hand and want to double up. As for surviving for a payjump or two. It's true you do win money for every person that is knocked out but you win so much more money when you double and can contend for the top couple of spots.

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Right, right. Especially with the way the stacks were laid out, my situation sucked. But him folding would be huge and obviously preferred.

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In general the minraise could be a monster, but I've noticed its more likely to be KQ/KJ/99 ish. You're hand is pretty strong against his range, you're shortstack with 10bb and at least a little bit of FE. I push.

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I have 13BBs, not 10, so I might have a little more FE than you thought. You’re right about that minraise though. I think that’s what really threw me off. It makes the pot smaller when he folds, and sometimes he’ll do that with monsters. The contradicting notes/stats made the read harder.

If we use the EV from when he raises 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ and calls AJ+ 55+:

EV =

.59(7800)+.41((-25720)(.4488)+(29520)(.5512)) = 6540.59

And we take our EV from when he is minraising “monsters” (which we’ll categorize as QQ+ and AK)

EV

= .2838(29520)+.7162(-25720) = -10042.888

If he has a monster &gt; 40% of the time, my play becomes –EV.

It just seemed impossible for him to have a monster with that frequency given the situation (stacks, position, tourney status).

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You pushed and he called u with AA and u where out right?

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How’d ya know?

I could have very easily shoved in and gotten called by A6 and had a 6 hit the river.

[jgunnip]

Yeah 13bb or ~10 effective bbs (2/3 preflop pot), you've still got some fold equity. Its hard to know what those minraises mean when you haven't played many hands with somebody but sometimes they are pretty transparent. For some players its always a monster, other KJo and 77 types. However when you're shortstacked and pick up a decent hand like AJs sometimes you just hace to stick it i and hope the hand is rigged.

Great work on the math, I'm way too lazy to type it all out myself [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]