WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a little surprised that everyone is getting caught up with our hand here.


Lets say we shove.

He is getting 1.2 - 1, so he certainly doesn't have to call unless he reads you as weak. That would probably only come into play for hands like AJ-AQ, and some pairs .

So, his calling range doesn't include hands we are ahead of very often (really only when he reads us as weak).

Outside of the fact that us having an A limits the combos of AK-AJ that he could have. The strength of our hand is pretty meaningless here. Almost all of the EV of a shove comes from F.E.. Would we be so quick to shove KJ, or 75s here?

If you actually run through the hand logically, you will notice that unless is calling range is pretty wide, our EV is about the same with ATs and 75s. Meaning, a shove is a bluff most of the time.

BUT......
I like to use hand strength as a signal for when to pull a bluff like this. That way, it offers us some protection when someone has a much wider calling range that we expect.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are much better with ATs against any reasonable calling range than with KJo or 75s. Of course, you are usually dominated when you are called, but I would rather have ATs against KK than 75s or KJo. The fact that you are behind when called is made up for all the times you aren't called.

The problem is that pushing is probably a little better than flat calling and HL is often making a play. You can't just fold all your late position raises to a reraise when you don't have AQ/99 or someone like HL will run over you.

Obviously, this is read dependent, but my default would be to push.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

383,556,096 games 0.005 secs 76,711,219,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.669% 72.44% 00.23% 277829556 898320.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 27.331% 27.10% 00.23% 103929900 898320.00 { 75s }


---

945,191,808 games 0.005 secs 189,038,361,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.710% 70.34% 00.37% 664877976 3466914.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.290% 28.92% 00.37% 273380004 3466914.00 { KJo }


---

308,214,720 games 0.005 secs 61,642,944,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.553% 66.58% 00.98% 205201200 3007980.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 32.447% 31.47% 00.98% 96997560 3007980.00 { ATs }

[curtains]

Yea I think ATs is significantly stronger than 75s in these situations.

[0evg0]

And I'm shoving KJs like 90% as often as I'm shoving ATs probably.

[adanthar]

does everyone else realize that he is now 18K deep, not 8, and if we're shoving it's for ~4.5x pot?

edit: also, if we're folding ATs here we're getting destroyed

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
does everyone else realize that he is now 18K deep, not 8, and if we're shoving it's for ~4.5x pot?

edit: also, if we're folding ATs here we're getting destroyed

[/ QUOTE ]

Well since you plan on calling anyway you are really only shoving for like 2.25x the pot, which is pretty normal for any hand you want to reraise.

[MUD]

[ QUOTE ]
does everyone else realize that he is now 18K deep, not 8, and if we're shoving it's for ~4.5x pot?

edit: also, if we're folding ATs here we're getting destroyed

[/ QUOTE ]

So is that a vote for call then?

I do agree with your edit though, and that was actually the first thing I thought when he raised.

[0evg0]

I don't see how calling can be good unless you're shoving over a c-bet on every flop.

And there's no way that we can know that to be profitable.

[WarDekar]

You're only shoving 2.5x pot, and I would hate to try and play this properly post-flop so I think I like just shoving it in PF better.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how calling can be good unless you're shoving over a c-bet on every flop.

And there's no way that we can know that to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the more or less how I would play it if I flat called. You have a pretty good hand to play that way. That is probably close to the same as pushing preflop in cEV. Against a strong player, though, there is no reason to complicate things.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how calling can be good unless you're shoving over a c-bet on every flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I keep saying this.. but I'm really interested in this play, and I really need to start learning how people respond to it.

Might actually be the best play here with these stacks.