Stud 8 open trips vs. John Juanda

[0evg0]

Ignore everything I've said in this thread. I gave it a shot, but after thinking about this more, there's just like a good 3 levels of thinking that I'm not able to deal with right now considering I've played around 100 hands of Stud 8 lifetime, and I'm still up now at 6:30. All this thinking reminds me of when I first saw NLHE on TV and had no idea wtf was going on.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[registrar]

I'd really want to know the full action, outed cards, what JJ bricked on the river. Can LTV give us more detail? Stacks, blinds etc.

I mean, I think check-call. I don't see how he can have missed both a low and also call the river with a worse high given this action. Or at least, I think that's going to be the case very rarely.

[registrar]

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0evg0--

What does Juanda have?

--Nate

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Nate -

Has LTV bet every street? Are any 7s out? Were there fewer than two hearts out at the start? How deep are we all?

[THEOSU]

juanda's only going to raise an unknown if he beats treys full. having said that, i certainly bet call because me + folding = not on speaking terms.

[Confused1]

Juanda could have: Any two under, obv. When he calls the bet on 5th street, there is exactly two cards that have us beat (77). I'll pay off the quads, if that's what he has.

When he 'bricks', if that brick hit a hole card, then he COULD have us beat on 6th street, but that's not very likely since he's got to have 7x in the hole or a PP (either way he has to hit 2 or 3 outs to beat us on 6th). If he's floating there with a 7 in the hole and not boated up yet, he's got 6 outs on 7th street. He could think a flush may be good and call it down, obv. He may think the call-call looks so strong that a river raise will get you to fold trips, since they are face up.

I think that all translates to check-call to me (against him).

edit: lol, I'm playing the wrong game. Real answer: I dunno.

[schwah]

this hand is actually pretty interesting

i think betting must be wrong since i cant see juanda calling without getting at least half.

my first instict was "i have a full house, bet" but this situation is pretty similiar to an example i read in some book (TOP maybe?) of when you have JJJJ showing and your opponent has 2 to a straight flush in a stud game. since it obvious what you have, your opponent will never pay you off with worse so a bet is 0 ev at best (and in reality slightly worse)

this situation isn't quite the same since he theoretically could call with just trip 7s but i think the chances of that are pretty minuscule since he would have to assume you're retarded since betting 7th with just trip 3s would be really bad, and the chances he has exactly trip 7s with no low is pretty small in the first place.

so checking is definitely right imo.

check/calling is my first instinct but rather than just assume its correct, first lets ask, what does he bet?

i think its obvious he'll never bluff if he cant beat trip 3s for high and doesn't have a low. that means we will never win more than half if he bets. his best possible low is a 7 and, from his perspective, we could potentially have as good as a wheel to go with our trip 3's. he knows we have at least trip 3's and possibly a boat and/or low, HOWEVER, since we checked it should be pretty obvious to him that we can't beat a 7 for low and therefore he might bet just a low on the tiny chance that we fold. so i think that if you check the river you have to call. (when i first thought about this i was considering check/folding since its so unlikely that he'll bet without having a hand that scoops us, but i think after we check 7th he can safely assume we don't have a low hand and make a bet with any low).

[nath]

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lol who the [censored] knows?

all 6 of you who know how to play stud 8 theory, raise your hands now plz

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oh hey, the standard witty comment from 0evg0, only this time, instead of being a first reply to some random noob's $11r post, it's in a thread about a $1500 buyin event against a top pro. well posted sir.

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$2000 event.

[schwah]

also, i guess if his range was biased towards a 7 in the hole and not 2 low cards based on early action and/or how he plays, i could see the river being a fold. but of course this violates the fundamental theory of limit poker: don't fold full houses in big pots for 1 bet

[registrar]

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also, i guess if his range was biased towards a 7 in the hole and not 2 low cards based on early action and/or how he plays, i could see the river being a fold. but of course this violates the fundamental theory of limit poker: don't fold full houses in big pots for 1 bet

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Christ, I couldn't do it but your posts are making me feel that check/fold might be the way ahead. However, I think 3-4th street action does matter. Would we, and would he expect us to, bet A2 down differently to 22 down here on thrid and fourth?

[bugstud]

we really need 3rd/4th action here guys, like juanda's hand could wasily be (45)737 or something of that ilk that thinks a 6 can scoop sometimes.