top two meets aggression

[callmedonnie]

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as it stands, it is more likely that he just cought some great cards over the past 40 hands or so than that we found a lunatic.


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Good point.

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Well this can be settled through observation. Over those 40 hands, was he catching or was he nuts?

[Elevens]

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Against this opponent, i really want to put 4-5 in the pot on the turn and river. I'd 3-bet the turn, if capped, i'm check/calling the river.

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[Fat Nicky]

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I think I would donk the river and call the raise, only because it is cheaper than 3 betting the turn, calling the cap, and c/c the river.


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I actually thought about this, and I don't like it because there is no guarantee that the villain is gonna raise the river.

[sfwusc]

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as it stands, it is more likely that he just cought some great cards over the past 40 hands or so than that we found a lunatic.


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So we really are going to give him credit for finding 8 preflop raising hands and 20 playable hands out of the last 40 dealt? That hit flops enough to say 3.5 agg?

Give me a break.

I think the hero played it well. Since the guy could have anything, but I really think AA, KK, AK, AQ, or maybe AXs in clubs is likely here.

I say we win the hand about 50% time and maybe more.

-SFWUSC

[jackdaniels]

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as it stands, it is more likely that he just cought some great cards over the past 40 hands or so than that we found a lunatic.


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So we really are going to give him credit for finding 8 preflop raising hands and 20 playable hands out of the last 40 dealt? That hit flops enough to say 3.5 agg?

Give me a break.

I think the hero played it well. Since the guy could have anything, but I really think AA, KK, AK, AQ, or maybe AXs in clubs is likely here.

I say we win the hand about 50% time and maybe more.

-SFWUSC

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So you advocate re-raising on the turn here and bet/calling the river? What if he caps the turn? do you now c/c the river or bet call?

[sfwusc]

I think c/c the river if capped is fine.

Dont you think 3 BB is weak on this hand vs this player.

5BB is better. 6+ is likely overkill.


-SFWUSC

[jackdaniels]

I think my action decison would boil down to this:

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as it stands, it is more likely that he just cought some great cards over the past 40 hands or so than that we found a lunatic.



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Good point.


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Well this can be settled through observation. Over those 40 hands, was he catching or was he nuts?

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Once this can be answered, you get to put in 5 BB on those streets vs. 3 BB. If you haven't been paying attention or if the hands you have on him are from a previous session you played (or multiple sessions for short periods), then I think putting in 5 bets is spewing. Either that or I need to be more agressive w/2 pair hands facing that kind of action - something I'd be happy to do if I can be convinced that they would be good most of the time.

[James.]

40 hands is nothing. you played it fine.

[winky51]

vs those stats on the "bad dude" LAG I think you played it right. 20 PFR and 3.5 TAF. I'm not even 3.5 TAF. He could be easily forcing AT here. If he is tricky even limping with AA with the A clubs. AND this is 3/6?... well at that limit the circus of fools comes up in full clown colors doing all sorts or silly things.

Only if this guy was UBERFISH would I even consider folding 50 VPIP, 3% PFR, .4 TAF, not tricky, doesnt bluff, bets when he feels he has the nuts or close to it.

Some might keep reraising this guy but there is a chance he might have you beat. Also if you have him beat why make him fold the worst hand. Let him keep betting.

http://www.texasholdempoker-stats.com/

[sfwusc]

You are making a read on this hand.

What are the chances that he is actually running that hot?

Running that hot vs Crazy

Odds are he is crazy. He could be running hot, but top two is a good hand here.

If he has KT, then you got out drawn, but there are only two tens out there. Unlikely. K8 or K2 are possible, but you have an 8. Maybe 22, which means you got unlucky.

So what did he have?

I just dont see how against 50/20/3.5 agg you dont want more big bets than 3.

Edit: typo on his stats.