2006 WSOP: Tilley favored over 4 former WSOP champs?

[NLfool]

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best bet you could make, and possibly the only one I would lay money down on, is that a man will win it.

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or take the field. also I might take the under on the ME having less entrants than it did last year. Gut feeling

[jaydub]

coors,

You are making the mistake of believing that the line represents what the bookmaker believes is the chance of the person winning. It does not, it represents popular opinion, Tilly being a hollywood celeb makes her a more popular bet.

J

[idrinkcoors]

[ QUOTE ]
coors,

You are making the mistake of believing that the line represents what the bookmaker believes is the chance of the person winning. It does not, it represents popular opinion, Tilly being a hollywood celeb makes her a more popular bet.

J

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Good point Jaydub,

I just don't know who in the (censored) would put good money on Jennifer Tilly over any previous WSOP champ. And I would love to see the person laying money on Tiffany Williamsen.

[KneeCo]

Fossilman said last year on Phil Gordon's podcast that no one was better than about 1500:1 (I'm pretty sure that was the figure, but don't quote me on it). I think that was a fair statement, and that was last year with a third less runners than are projected for 2006.

[IQ of 47]

you go bet that under on # of people in WSOP ME this year compared to last, actually don't make it, I'll take that action Also, that's exactly right about the oddsmakers, it's not what they think, it's what they think people will bet on (why the Cubs and Red Sox are always lower odds on prop bets than would make sense, stupid loyal fans who bet them every year, same with Ivey, widely considered best player in the world, plenty of quail-tards will take the favorite to win)

[threeonefour]

can i bet on those people NOT winning. or NOT making the final table? it seems like those lines are really skewed. i remember phil ivery being 60 to 1 to make the final table or something. i would be interested in betting the NOT side of a lot of players

[idrinkcoors]

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can i bet on those people NOT winning. or NOT making the final table? it seems like those lines are really skewed. i remember phil ivery being 60 to 1 to make the final table or something. i would be interested in betting the NOT side of a lot of players

[/ QUOTE ]

You could probably do that, but it would be like when you ar playing craps and betting on the no 4. You have to bet and risk a lot to make a little.

For example: if Ivey is 200-1 to win, then the opposite means that you would bet $200 to win $1. Or you would put up $2,000 to win $10 profit. Or for say Fossilman, you would bet $1,500 against him winning to make a profit of $2.00

For Tiffany Willamsen at 2000-1 you could bet $10,000 to win $5.00 Yes, the easiest $5 ever, but still....

[Bartman387]

thanks for the gamblng 101 lesson.

Even understanding the concepts you just introduced, they are pretty big sucker bets.

[idrinkcoors]

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thanks for the gamblng 101 lesson.

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You are welcome. Stay tuned for next weeks topic:

"Optimal Strategies for Winning Slot Tournaments"

[MCS]

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At what point would you put say $100 on Ivey?

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I think the 0 EV point is maybe around 1250-1. I figure he's about 4x as likely to win as an average player and there are likely to be around 5000 players.