2/4 Bellagio vs. Liz

[Turning Stone Pro]

"The [wo]man has kings get your tail out."

TSP

[Ian J]

Not that I don't agree with what everyone is saying, but I think everyone is severely discounting the amount of time she has exactly 97 and bets the river before realizing the board paired. Given that, I'm beginning to agree that my initial river raise is bad even though right after the hand I was convinced it was the right play.

What does everyone think of Vince Vegas' post? John is a very tight but very good player and he knows I respect him. If I just call on the flop and now Liz bets the turn and he raises, am I not running the risk of getting blown off the best hand by John by failing to define my own? I think it's a very close and interesting spot.

Somehow I managed to completely butcher this hand. I think sometimes we go into hands with players and have preconceived notions about how they play and act accordingly. Every time I play with Liz I play her as if I was playing some over aggro insane LAG when that's not the case.

[Heir_Aparent]

what do people think about folding the river UI (board doesnt pair low card, or river jack obviously) given the action and fact OP says she was playing somewhat normal? i suppose this may just be criminal, but just a thought.

Also, even if she bets river w/ 97 not realizing board paired, doesnt really ever justify a raise.. she still has a set >85% of the time and 3 bets you. Teh value gained from that river raise is tinyyy unless u have a ridiculous read in which case thered be no reason to post this.

Also, I dont like not 3 bettign the flop. it makes the hand icky soemtimes like u mentioned, and u also miss a ton of value/information.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
what do people think about folding the river UI (board doesnt pair low card, or river jack obviously) given the action and fact OP says she was playing somewhat normal? i suppose this may just be criminal, but just a thought.



[/ QUOTE ]

i assumed ian was folding the river UI, but the 5 counterfeits 97s. i can't imagine that we are winning, unless liz thinks ian will 3bet the flop with 88 or overcards.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Not that I don't agree with what everyone is saying, but I think everyone is severely discounting the amount of time she has exactly 97 and bets the river before realizing the board paired.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If I was playing the hand, I'd have convinced myself she had 97s and prayed for a counterfeit. (I think if she had a set, she'd have just gone insane on the flop and not stopped.) IMO your hand is face up, so even if she did bet the river w/out thinking, I think your raise would have given her pause to reevaluate and I suspect she'd have folded the river. I have never played with her. Maybe I am giving her too much credit.

[Heir_Aparent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do people think about folding the river UI (board doesnt pair low card, or river jack obviously) given the action and fact OP says she was playing somewhat normal? i suppose this may just be criminal, but just a thought.



[/ QUOTE ]

i assumed ian was folding the river UI, but the 5 counterfeits 97s. i can't imagine that we are winning, unless liz thinks ian will 3bet the flop with 88 or overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. Besides a jack the 5 is a perfect card for Ian. Its a must river call at this point IMO (crying call but still), but i couldnt infer from other psoters whether or not this a fold vs liz if the river comes, lets say a deuce, for example. Or if its a must call.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Not that I don't agree with what everyone is saying, but I think everyone is severely discounting the amount of time she has exactly 97 and bets the river before realizing the board paired. Given that, I'm beginning to agree that my initial river raise is bad even though right after the hand I was convinced it was the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we give her a range of exactly 97/55/33 then you have about 70% equity in the pot, however there are other ways you can be beat here. 53s, 77, 64s all seem conceivable, and if you throw those hands in, your equity is down to 43% (e.g. you're an underdog). She also might show up with hands like AA and 86 and 99 once in a while. Just think the river raise is pretty bad.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do people think about folding the river UI (board doesnt pair low card, or river jack obviously) given the action and fact OP says she was playing somewhat normal? i suppose this may just be criminal, but just a thought.



[/ QUOTE ]

i assumed ian was folding the river UI, but the 5 counterfeits 97s. i can't imagine that we are winning, unless liz thinks ian will 3bet the flop with 88 or overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

He should definitely 3 bet the flop with those hands sometimes. We absolutely should be going to showdown unimproved, just not for 3 bets.

-DeathDonkey

[tongni]

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn it was clear that she has a set

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i assumed ian was folding the river UI

[/ QUOTE ]


These kind of responses are why less and less really strong players post in this forum.

As for the river raise, I don't like it much because you are Ian J and because I think she will play very well vs it against you.

[mike l.]

i dont know why youre raising the river, it's pretty easy for her to have a straight or boat here. this is pretty standard top river stuff. obviously fold to her river 3 bet.