1k wsop sat: A 3-bet flop bluff

[bugstud]

yeti theorem

[grafyx]

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Actually if I'm going to make this play i prefer it against a more known/smart/thinking high buy in player.

I don't think many average players can fold 99/TT here, 88 maybe?

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I really thought I had added FE at the time because I didn't think at sat player would want to bust in level 1 of a 1k event. I may be overestimating this though, but I was thinking he was going to fold one pair hands Tens and below a good percentage of the time.

Against a high buyin regular, I would worry some about him being able to narrow my range down on the flop since he probably thinks I don't make this play with KK+/77/4x on this dry of a flop.

[kurtkatt]

i kinda like this. especially since you have shown earlier that you are willing to give up pots. And more you really want to make a stand very soon against this player if he is gonna be interferring with your game like this.

But the cons discussed are quite valid also. So i guess its a very high variance play thats kinda hard (atleast for me) to put a definite value to.

[registrar]

I think he's somewhat rarely bluffing, somewhat often has a hand he's never folding (77, TT+) and not folding the hands you hope he will often enough. Also, if's any good and assumes you're any good, he's going to be discounting the top of your range somewhat because you've got two streets to get the rest in with a little more than the pot behind.

[Sherman]

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I really thought I had added FE at the time because I didn't think at sat player would want to bust in level 1 of a 1k event. I may be overestimating this though, but I was thinking he was going to fold one pair hands Tens and below a good percentage of the time.

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Yeah. This is what I'm not sure of. If he is a sat player, is he scared to bust in level 1? Or does that just mean he is uncapable of folding period? I don't know.

[Fish R Friends]

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yeti theorem

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Agreed. What I don't understand here is that this flop is a part of the range you've assigned the villain. You're no longer playing him, you're fighting yourself. Considering that, this play makes little sense.

What do you think, he thinks you have? Doubt it if he'll fold now. You gotta muck this trash pre-flop.

[JadeRedstone]

You're out played your self sir.
First you say the guy is a bad player, then you think he is good enough to fold a pair or an over pair in this spot.
Reminds me of something Doyle said in SS1 about how many a good players insisted giving all their chips to low level calling station on WSOP

[grafyx]

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You're out played your self sir.
First you say the guy is a bad player, then you think he is good enough to fold a pair or an over pair in this spot.
Reminds me of something Doyle said in SS1 about how many a good players insisted giving all their chips to low level calling station on WSOP

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I didn't say he was bad, I said he's not a name I recognize as being a regular at high stakes MTTs, most likely a Sat qualifier. I think there is a big difference. I did say UTG was bad to provide some reasoning for why I was trying to isolate him with the initial raise with a marginal hand like QTo.