Puzzling river play - Page 2

MarkD · #11 02-20-2007, 06:07 PM

Ok, but these numbers don't accurately answer the question unless you've filtered for only those times where you opened with the hand. I have no doubt that playing 22 or 33 on the CO or Button is profitable. I only question if opening with those hands is profitable.

I'm not very opinionated either way but am quite curious what you guys with large databases have for opening numbers.

[ QUOTE ]
"
I don't have a very big database but are you making money with 22 and 33 in CO opens? Button opens?
"
im losing a tad on the button with 22 but making up for it in the co. im winnin with 33+ in co and button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously still a lot of variance in your sample, but did you filter for only those times you opened the pot or are these all instances of the hand in that position?

ps. I'm not sure if it's easy to filter for when you open with a hand compared to playing after others have entered the pot, but this is what I am interested in.

Nilzor · #12 02-20-2007, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ps. I'm not sure if it's easy to filter for when you open with a hand compared to playing after others have entered the pot, but this is what I am interested in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is. Interesting side-discussion btw. Here are my stats for what it's worth, taken from a sample size of 200k+ hands dating back as far as mid-2005 (filtering is done from General Info->Filters):

As you can see, I'm obviously making money on this play. That said, I'd be careful taking these kind of stats too literally. First of all, many of these hands were played when the game texture was different from now. But if I cut down the time span, the sample size may get too small to be relevant (maybe it is even now). Secondly, the stats never take metagame considerations into account. I could be inclined to continue my 22/33 play even if it was marginally negative EV - for the sake of my image. And one more thing - these stats don't tell when or why I openfold from these positions.

Nilzor · #13 02-20-2007, 07:01 PM

Ok result time:

River: (18.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 20.75 BB
Seat 1: Button mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

----
Looks like Scary Tiger was spot on with the "crazy draw raise for equity" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I totally misread the BB-guy. I saw ghosts and feared he was gonna do some sexy CR with KK/AA, but of course that wouldn't quite add up with the preflop play. Thankfully I took to my senses and bet, as you can see (but the reasoning was more like "Ok I have NO clue, but I DO have a set on a non-flushed board and someone just checked to me", [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

Guy McSucker · #14 02-20-2007, 07:03 PM

I seem to recall Mr ___1___, who has played literally millions of hands, saying that for him at least, opening any pair from any position is profitable.

Take that for what it's worth. I'm not making any recommendations here.

Guy.

Victor · #15 02-20-2007, 07:22 PM

i didnt filter for that but i would say 99% of the time its an open raise since i dont play them after one limper and it would take the whole table to ccall before i called.

MarkD · #16 02-20-2007, 07:33 PM

Ok, thanks a lot guys. I've waffled with these two specific pairs in these two positions and I don't trust any of my data because I lose / break-even and don't play nearly the hands you guys do.

Victor,

I think I limp with them after 1 limper 100% of the time. I don't see why you wouldn't.

Victor · #17 02-20-2007, 07:46 PM

3.5:1 minus times it gets raised from blinds = i dont like.

MarkD · #18 02-20-2007, 07:51 PM

Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind when I play but imagine I'll still limp along... I like to flop sets and hate not flopping them when I had the chance for cheap. I'm a donkey. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What pair do you start to isolate the limper with then?

baronzeus · #19 02-20-2007, 08:11 PM

The key to opening hands from earlier position s really lies entirely in the chance that someone floats you here. If someone cold calls you, your expectation/decision making goes to DRAMATICALLY downward, and the open is very bad.

I think just about any time you have a high vpip player in position vs you you should just dump this hand. otherwise, you'll likely get it HU (tighter players in position will 3bet you a lot and you'll still be OOP but against only one other player) and can raise

sweetjazz · #20 02-20-2007, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok result time:

River: (18.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 20.75 BB
Seat 1: Button mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

----
Looks like Scary Tiger was spot on with the "crazy draw raise for equity" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

In the original hand, it was BB who 3bet the turn (and then folded the river according to your results). So his 3bet appears to have been a ridonkulous bluff attempt.