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#11
02-09-2007, 08:44 AM
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Re: River Decision
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I would basically always check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] What considerations lead to your decision to check this turn? Guy. 
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#12
02-13-2007, 06:47 AM
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Re: River Decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah I would basically always check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] What considerations lead to your decision to check this turn? Guy. [/ QUOTE ] Unashamedly bumping this. Well, slightly ashamedly I suppose. I want to bet this turn. Why shouldn't I? Please? Guy.
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#13
02-13-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: River Decision
miles: I can't imagine ever checking behind and folding to a river bet here.
Guy: The only problem with betting this turn is it doesn't have a lot of value to it, and we aren't all that concerned about giving free cards, and inducing a bluff may get more value out of something like J9s. Once we bet and get C/Red does anyone like 3-betting and checking behind UI or is that spewtastic against an unknown?
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#14
02-13-2007, 05:30 PM
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Re: River Decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yeah I would basically always check the turn here. [/ QUOTE ] What considerations lead to your decision to check this turn? Guy. [/ QUOTE ] Unashamedly bumping this. Well, slightly ashamedly I suppose. I want to bet this turn. Why shouldn't I? Please? Guy. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you want to bet the turn? what hands are just calling here? What hands are folding? What could he have called the flop with? What hands might he fold to a turn bet? What does your hand look like if you check this turn? Could you then get value from a bluff? I think a lot of the time we are getting c/r'd or he is folding. I think Our hand is very strong and we have to call the c/r, even though we are certainly behind if c/r'd. A lot of gutshots just got there and that Q in general is just a scary card.
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#15
02-19-2007, 01:28 PM
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Re: River Decision
The only read is a guy that coolcalls pf from the SB...
I don't understand why a turn call from this player is especially unlikely on a QJTx board...seems like the MOST likely outcome to me.
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#16
02-19-2007, 03:15 PM
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Re: River Decision
[ QUOTE ]
miles: I can't imagine ever checking behind and folding to a river bet here. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry I was unclear. I'm not planning on folding this hand. I'm saying that there will be other times when I have a hand like Ax where I check behind and fold to a river bet. So I think this is a nice spot to have where you check behind and call a river bet. I'm not one to talk too much about balancing, but this seems as good a time as any.
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#17
02-19-2007, 03:39 PM
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Re: River Decision
On the one hand, the cold call in the small blind by the villain is a sign of donkishness. But on the other hand, a call from the small blind by a reasonable but not great player is a lot scarier with this board than if villain were in the big blind. From the big blind he could have any number of Jx and Tx hands that we are still ahead of, but from the small blind, I think KJ, KT, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, and J9 are a much greater portion of his range. We are ahead of a few of these hands but behind a lot.
However, we don’t know how much of his range the above hands constitutes. Villain’s actions so far have been really passive—failing to steal re-raise and also c/cing on the flop even with the BB still in. So it seems like we are more likely to profit from the hand by making him pay to chase on the turn/getting some value than we are by inducing a river bluff. So I much prefer betting the turn and checking river if we only want to put one more bet in. The other reason I prefer this line is that we get an extra bet when our 8 outs for the nuts come in. A lot of the time, I think a fishy villain will c/f the river where he might have paid off on the turn. After the checkraise, I too would call down ui.
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