AQo vs. LAG and LP

[tyler_cracker]

this thread is very [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

preflop cap is e-z. we have position on a guy who looks LAGgy and there is a third guy in the pot playing 50% of his hands. cap for value!

flop raise is good. we could still have the best hand and our equity increases substantially if button folds.

now things go pear-shaped.

that turn c/r is spew-tacular. Button isn't all that passive (AF of 1 when you play 50% of your hands is sort of neutral), but he just 3bet *two* preflop raisers on the flop. just call the turn.

since you didn't, i really want to fold to the turn 3bet. we're getting 19:2 == 9.5:1, so we need like 4.5 outs. i don't think our 5-outer is good nearly that often because Button has a set a lot and we are drawing dead when he does. i guess it's close, but there's no reason you should be in this situation in the first place.

[CrMenace]

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On the flop, heads up, I may raise, but vs. 2 or more, I call. You have overs and no pr. At best you have 6 outs.

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As SSHE says, it is almost never correct to call if you are one after the better. If you think I am in a good enough position to call, raising is better. If not, folding is better.

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ON Turn, I think you like your Qs, but when button goes to war, you ahve to slo down. Buttons 3 bet should mean that he is ahead. You may have 5 outs, you may have none.

Remember that his isnt a pissing contest, and sometimes when they 3 bet the flop and bet reraise the turn, they have a real hand!

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Am I missing something? Once I was 3-bet on the turn, I did slow down. Do you mean I should not have bet/c/r'd the turn? Or I should have folded to a 3-bet?

[CrMenace]

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this thread is very [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

preflop cap is e-z. we have position on a guy who looks LAGgy and there is a third guy in the pot playing 50% of his hands. cap for value!

flop raise is good. we could still have the best hand and our equity increases substantially if button folds.

now things go pear-shaped.

that turn c/r is spew-tacular. Button isn't all that passive (AF of 1 when you play 50% of your hands is sort of neutral), but he just 3bet *two* preflop raisers on the flop. just call the turn.

since you didn't, i really want to fold to the turn 3bet. we're getting 19:2 == 9.5:1, so we need like 4.5 outs. i don't think our 5-outer is good nearly that often because Button has a set a lot and we are drawing dead when he does. i guess it's close, but there's no reason you should be in this situation in the first place.

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Thank you, Tyler, for your excellent post. I agree with what you say here.

[CrMenace]

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SB was very laggy, especially pf -- he had raised 5 of the 15 hands we had played against each other so far

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Sample size. You'd need more specific information before making a statement like this just purely on stats.

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How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

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Seriously? Many times.

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You're impossible. How many is "many?"

Which do you think is really more likely -- that he hit a streak of hot cards or that he is a LAG? Sure, my read may have been wrong, but much more likely it was right. We have to make due with small sample sets all the time in poker.

[davelin]

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How many times have you raised pf 5 times in 1.5 orbits in full ring?

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Seriously? Many times.

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You're impossible. How many is "many?"

Which do you think is really more likely -- that he hit a streak of hot cards or that he is a LAG? Sure, my read may have been wrong, but much more likely it was right. We have to make due with small sample sets all the time in poker.

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I'm not saying it's a regular occurance but it happens frequently enough. You get a streak of good cards, you get more opportunities to blind steal or iso-raise a loose player, etc. With what degree of regularity I can't say. But someone smarter than me could tell you at what band of confidence someone who raises 12-15% of hands will hit a streak of 15 cards where he raises 5 or more.

Also you seem to be making a generalization of both pre-flop and post-flop play based on one statistic. LAGs like all players come in all shapes and sizes, there are some who play very aggresively post-flop but very reasonably post-flop.

If you had a single case or two of something that would confirm the read, that would be more helpful. For example I saw Villain 3-bet Q4o after a pre-flop raiser and a cold-calling or raise 33 in the SB after 4 limpers or something like that. Given your only statement of SB, it's hard to accurately determine his range.

[tyler_cracker]

dave,

all of this is true and we can call davidc or one of the other math/stat people in to figure it out.

the question is: do you cap AQ here? what info do you need before you cap it with AQ in this situation?

[zEBBiE]

*grunch*

I think I donk the turn, to prevent Button from checking down w/ draws and possibly getting SB out if he raises. I then bet river if not raised, if so I probably c/c.

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Hmm, didn't really consider that Button 3-bet flop. Guess he doesn't have a draw that often then. I usually only c/r with zero players trapped with monsters, and I wouldn't call AQ that after this action. Probably still b/c or c/c, considering if SB is likely to c/r (the more prone he is to c/r, the more likely I am to c/c)

[davelin]

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dave,

all of this is true and we can call davidc or one of the other math/stat people in to figure it out.

the question is: do you cap AQ here? what info do you need before you cap it with AQ in this situation?

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Against an unknown, or someone I only knew what the OP provided, I would just call here. Against someone I knew to be LAGgy (at least pre-flop and possibly post-flop as well), I'd be fine with a cap.

Even with the above read, calling the flop and raising SB's continuation bet with almost all flops to isolate is a fine play as well.

[HouseCalls]

ok I'm coming to this late but it seems to me that to cap pf and raise the flop you need to be very sure of this read. The problem here is that you may be (are likely to?) be building a pot here when you are behind.

In part due to your PF cap and flop raise you have made the pot so big that you are tied to it on the turn and river even when you are behind.

I understand its fine to call down in large pots when you are behind if the odds judtify it, but creating large pots when your behind and then calling down causes me physical pain.

[EGO]

*grunch*

15 hands is not enough. You've got a decent starting hand and position on the other aggressor, so I don't mind the cap.

The flop doesn't look too good for us. Button could be on a flush draw. I don't consider 50/11/1 to be loose passive, this is pretty loose and aggressive. I consider after the small blind bet here (on the flop) the first most interesting point in the hand. You really don't have much, but the pot is big, so I don't mind raising here, but getting 3-bet with a weak draw sucks.

I really don't like the turn check-raise. The pot is big, so just calling down is OK, and we don't want to risk getting 3-bet like we did by reopening the action. We are probably married to this pot unless the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] rolls off.

Easy river call in a huge pot.

I put button on a set of jacks, and small blind on ??.