Flop decision

[Big Folder]

Lets continue the semi play along.

I call the flop. SB calls as is all in. BB and UTG fold.

(12.5 bb)
Turn is a 5. Board is now 9 7 5 5

<font color="red">UTG1 bets. </font> Fish Calls. <font color="red"> hero raises. </font> <font color="red"> UTG1 3-bets. </font> Fish Folds. Hero???

[bbbushu]

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If UTG1 bets the turn, two fish call, my raise will still give people 16:2 odds behind me to call. Thats enough to make calling with a gutshot a mistake. This is the only hand I can protect against since the pot is huge, but at least I'm protecting against them then. On the flop I basically can't protect against anything.

Note also, I'm talking about the people potentially behind me on the turn, not the guys who have already called. Even those guys will fold though as I'll explain below.

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depending on where the bet comes from on the turn, there's not a lot of candidates to be "behind" you after you raise. as i said in my first post, it would hafta be one of the two cold-calling fish instead of one of the two people who actually bet (or raised) on the flop (where i think a bet is a lot more likely to come from). in fact, in your scenario you're only protecting your hand from ONE player (who i guess you think lead the flop with a gutshot?) which doesn't really seem to beneficial. btw, if somebody's gonna lead with a gutshot, they'll call two here. furthermore, if UTG+1 bets and gets two callers on the turn and then we raise, the pot will be offering 18:2 or 9:1 to UTG if s/he's still around, which is pretty close, anyways.

EDIT: apparently the BB could also be drawing but the SB being all-in eliminates them from this consideration.

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For a player who understands odds, if they had the odds to call the turn bet they'll likely have the odds to call a raise from behind. But these players don't think about this. At best they think "I'll pay one to see the river, but a raise means I'm drawing thin." You'd be surprised at how many people call/fold to a raise on the turn. People don't think like solid players and calculate odds, they think simply.

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if you think these people will fold after calling a bet, fire away. i know these players are retarded because i've built my whole bankroll taking advantage of them. i also read a book about them called Small Stakes Hold 'em which is about how they think, etc. if part of your hand protection strategy is to raise hoping all the fish will "fold a live draw for one more" then you seriously need to rethink.

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Implied odds is definitely out of a fish's vocabulary. Chasing gutshots for them is simple. They might fold for an additional bet. Remember, these people don't think rationally. They'll think that calling $6 for a gutshot is ok, but they don't want to pay another $6 for it. They don't count odds, they count money.

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the psychological aspect is answered above. even if they don't understand "implied odds" it's still our job to make sure they're making mistakes and i don't think calling here for them really would be. EVEN if they don't consider implied odds, they can still make the right decision (for whatever reason).

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You're right, we are probably ahead here. The problem is raising the flop will charge them, but they'll be more correct to take those odds on the flop. Waiting until the turn allows you to force people into bigger mistakes. 3-betting this flop will likely give people correct odds on the flop anyways and definitely give them correct odds on the turn, especially if its checked to me. Then I have no way to protect my hand on any street.

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i don't think it can be protected either way. if you're right that we should wait until the turn, it can only be for value. proving this would be a lot more compelling to me than this protection argument (btw, now that i think about it, there's a good chance we'd make a decent amount more by waiting, especially if UTG+1 will bet again).

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Them not knowing odds is important because they will fold live draws when they have the odds to call. Think of it this way. 1)People who smooth call the flop then raise the turn usually do so because they got a monster. It looks like a slowplay. The fish will think they are way behind and fold their weak live draws like 2pair or better. 2) Even if they knew all i had was JJ some would fold because they don't understand odds. They don't realize they still have 5 outs to chase, they'll simply say "$12 is too much to spend and he has me beat. I fold." Them not counting odds is great because they will fold when they should call to turn aggression.

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answered above. it doesn't matter if they know why they're making the right decision or not. they'd be hard-pressed to make the wrong one here which is why we should make them pay to play, either way.

bbbushu

[MacGuyV]

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i don't think it can be protected either way. if you're right that we should wait until the turn, it can only be for value. proving this would be a lot more compelling to me than this protection argument

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QFT

[bbbushu]

edit to the above post: if somebody proves that waiting until the turn makes more money against a field of players who won't fold, i'll concede that waiting is best. i don't think protection is possible, especially if the bettor continues to be UTG+1


the turn:

hero calls getting like 18:1 or whatever, almost having the correct odds to draw to a boat + the chances we're ahead of the retarded guy.

bbbushu

[BigBadBabar]

i mean to me this is basically the same argument as "97 billion limpers to me, i have jj in the blinds, raise, amirite?" where it's not gonna be possible to protect your hand, and you're gonna get run down a lot, but every now and then your hand holds up and you drag a huge pot.

i think people are over-fascinated by 'protecting their hand.' and i don't think in a live low limit game it really applies. just bet and raise when you think/feel you have the best hand, and keep doing so unless the board gets really scary or someone plays back at you.

[Big Folder]

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depending on where the bet comes from on the turn, there's not a lot of candidates to be "behind" you after you raise. as i said in my first post, it would hafta be one of the two
cold-calling fish instead of one of the two people who actually bet (or raised) on the flop (where i think a bet is a lot more likely to come from). in fact, in your scenario you're only protecting your hand from ONE player (who i guess you think lead the flop with a gutshot?) which doesn't really seem to beneficial. btw, if somebody's gonna lead with a gutshot, they'll call two here. furthermore, if UTG+1 bets and gets two callers on the turn and then we raise, the pot will be offering 18:2 or 9:1 to UTG if s/he's still around, which is pretty close, anyways.


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Maybe my first post wasn't clear enough. There are two people behind me on the flop, SB and BB. I'm worried about these people since I can't worry about the rest in front of me. With my flop decision I assume they stay, as will UTG. So my turn raise is to protect against 3 possible players.

And I dont get how you're saying I'm not protecting when I'm giving gutshots 9:1 to call. They can call, but they are doing so incorrectly. They can fold, which is what I want them to do. I win either way.

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if you think these people will fold after calling a bet, fire away. i know these players are retarded because i've built my whole bankroll taking advantage of them. i also read a book about them called Small Stakes Hold 'em which is about how they think, etc. if part of your hand protection strategy is to raise hoping all the fish will "fold a live draw for one more" then you seriously need to rethink.


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I'm glad you've read SSHE. Its a great book. Since you have check out pages 165, especially the 2nd and third paragraphs, also see page 162-63. This deals with protection.

The other part of waiting which Tyler mentioned was that my hand is very vulnerable here. Check out SSHE page 187.

I have overpair and a 3-bet on the flop is likely for value, but there are a lot of cards on the turn which could sink me. Any A,K,Q,8,6 really hurts me, especially against a large field. I'm waiting because my equity shoots through the roof with a safe turn card.

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the psychological aspect is answered above. even if they don't understand "implied odds" it's still our job to make sure they're making mistakes and i don't think calling here for them really would be. EVEN if they don't consider implied odds, they can still make the right decision (for whatever reason).

[/ QUOTE ] Right, which is why i advocate waiting for the turn to raise. If they are going to make a mistake somewhere, they'll make a larger one on the turn.

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i don't think it can be protected either way. if you're right that we should wait until the turn, it can only be for value. proving this would be a lot more compelling to me than this protection argument (btw, now that i think about it, there's a good chance we'd make a decent amount more by waiting, especially if UTG+1 will bet again).

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Sure, its more valuable to wait until the turn if UTG1 likely bets into me, but my main thinking was about protection and waiting until the turn to see where my equity will lie.

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answered above. it doesn't matter if they know why they're making the right decision or not. they'd be hard-pressed to make the wrong one here which is why we should make them pay to play, either way.

bbbushu

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You haven't shown my why I can't protect. You are assuming everyone calls the flop and turn bet before I act. If that is the case the flop would have 28sb in it. If UTG1 bets out he's offering the fish 15:1 to call. Even if they both called, my raise will give the people behind me 19:2 to call, which isn't enough immediate odds for a gutshot.

Implied odds might get them there, but you are ignoring the fact the three players behind me will think I have a monster. Fish don't like cold calling two on the turn, even with live draws. You are giving them too much credit here. I will likely get them to fold and might even get people who have called one already to fold. Again Fish dont think about odds, they think about money. They'll think calling one bet to the river is great, but won't want to spend another $6 at times. I'm not saying people always fold in these spots, but what I'm saying is more correct than you saying "they will always call one back to them." No they won't. Miller even recognizes as much.

So given that I can't protect on the flop, might be able to protect on the turn, the fact that my equity will shoot through the roof or fall into the crapper on the turn, and the odds that fish will make incorrect folds anyways makes it better to wait.

[BigBadBabar]

folder, are you asking, or telling? i can't tell.

[bbbushu]

big folder,

just a few things:

there's only 2 players to fear on the flop (1 more than i originally thought, i'll admit) because SB is all-in, anyhow. if BB calls two cold with a gutshot on the flop, i promise they'll do it again on the turn.

if implied odds from the next street make it 10:1 or 11:1, giving them 9:1 immediate odds is not protecting our hand. even if they don't know this, if they'll still call it doesn't really matter bc they're not making a mistake.

the only cards that are really that bad news for us (IMO) are the ace, maybe the king and the 8 and the 6. not too shabby considering we just have an overpair with no re-draws. i don't think the decision will change that much on the turn.

i refuse to believe that ed miller thinks that when we raise somebody who has already called a bet, they'll fold. i also generally refuse to believe that this is reality (especially in online play).

if we make more money waiting, then we should wait. i don't think we can protect our hand very well by offering gutshot-toting fish 1 out too little in IMMEDIATE ODDS by raising the turn in a gigantic pot. i'd rather just build a huge ship to crash and hope i make it past the icebergs.

bet, raise, pray.

bbbushu

[Big Folder]

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folder, are you asking, or telling? i can't tell.

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Im discussing.

[Big Folder]

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big folder,


i refuse to believe that ed miller thinks that when we raise somebody who has already called a bet, they'll fold. i also generally refuse to believe that this is reality (especially in online play).

bbbushu

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I think the fish are pegged wrong. Most fish don't think "big pot, I'm calling down all the way." They aren't that smart. They do this a lot though when its one bet to them. They think its cheap and they think they aren't in that bad of shape. They think hitting two pair might win them the hand. A raise on the turn gives them a far different impression than a raise on the flop. Most weak players don't raise the turn unless they have monsters. If a fish sees someone call the flop and raise the turn they'll sometimes go into freak out mode.

They ignore odds and they will fail to realize they still have the odds to call the raise. They don't think about pot size or chasing in large pots. At best, they think "Can i win this? Can I draw out?" When faced with aggression they will sometimes fold after they have called. It happened in this hand twice. (UTG folded the flop. Fish called the turn, but folded to my raise). Both probably were incorrect to do so. In my experience it happens enough to make it a possibility.

Fish think about money, not odds. They think "I will pay $6 to see the river", but a raise will get them to think "But its not worth another $6. I could be way behind."