Wait till river to c/r TP

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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Disregarding metagame: yes, I think the play sucks in 49 of 50 cases.

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against a lot of the so-called good playing tags i play against AT is winning a lot here actually, hardly sucking in 49 out of 50 cases.

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He has top pair with a mediocre kicker - you simply don't checkraise that on river for other reasons than metagame.


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other than expecting your hand to be best a good % of the time?

[Victor]

i think you are a dog to his river value bet range. this dude is the nittiest of nits and a gay tiltmonkey and i hope he reads this.

[tolbiny]

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If you guys think this sucks given what I think he thinks of me, what perception must he have of me for this to be good?


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I don't like his River C/r at all. 1/4th of your A2-A9 range beats him, your 55, 44, 54 (88 maybe, flop raise would be infrequent i would guess there, but not 0%) 67 free card raise all destroy him, and only 54 doesn't 3 bet this river (though i guess he folds to a 3 bet a high %). A few other hands might include KJ, QJ, TJ spades that raised for a free card and tried to aqeeze value on the paired river, but getting those to bet/call there is pretty thin.

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What do I have, and what do I think he has?

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YOur hand range is above, while you have got to peg him for a monster in general. A set/ or maybe 2 pair on the river. with a set or 67 though you would think he would want to C/r the turn most of the time. Basically it looks like the rier improved his JJ or AJ enough of the time that you can't really call that C?R with your samll UI Aces. Which is why i hate his C/r, his hand is clearly good enough for a call, but any paired \up hands you do fold will be behind him anyway.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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Basically it looks like the rier improved his JJ or AJ enough of the time that you can't really call that C?R with your samll UI Aces. Which is why i hate his C/r, his hand is clearly good enough for a call, but any paired \up hands you do fold will be behind him anyway.

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if the AT guy in this hand assumes his opponent is a typical online TAG or whatever, he knows that he is not folding. in fact the line is so suspicious the TAG may even call down super duper lightly to look him up.

[DeathDonkey]

Chris I'm glad you are here. Seriously when I get CRed on these rivers I think WTF and try and talk myself into calling with KQ high putting him on missed spades. The mediocre TAGs don't even stop to try and put him on a hand, they just call fast.

-DeathDonkey

[milesdyson]

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You forgot random bluffs with like KQ, also A2o, A3o (I raise any ace 4 handed), and hands like sets and flopped two pair might not play this way so I don't think they can be given equal frequency.

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Chris I'm glad you are here. Seriously when I get CRed on these rivers I think WTF and try and talk myself into calling with KQ high putting him on missed spades.

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if the AT guy in this hand assumes his opponent is a typical online TAG or whatever, he knows that he is not folding. in fact the line is so suspicious the TAG may even call down super duper lightly to look him up.


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I'm just responding to these bits.

KQ raises the flop, bets the turn, and bet/calls the river? CDC is saying AT can get looked up light - by what? What plays the flop and turn like this that has a chance to look this up? A pair of 5s raises the flop and value bets the river? Or it lolbluffs on the end and then lolcalls a check raise?

Gehrig why don't you go ahead and put A2o and A3o in that range? It most likely still won't be for value, and I think AK and AQ should be included (at a discount) in MP's range anyway.

This can't be right.

[wackjob]

depends how this guy is playing. as victor pointed out, he is a total tilt_monkey at times, and at other times he can play pretty decent. I've had this guy 3-betting A5s versus my UTG raise 6handed, and the very next day he will just cold call the same situation w/AQ.

personally I think river c/r's with mediocre 1 pair hands are not the way to go against most villains. you get looked up constantly at almost every level I've ever played, which makes river bluff c/raising pointless as well.

[admiralfluff]

I thought this was pretty bad when he first did it. Then I thought it was pretty good. After some more thought I thought maybe the play was -EV but had sufficient positive Shania to be good. Now I think it's fairly bad, unless his read on me is much different than I think it should be.

I never think this is a bluff (because from a tight TAG it virtually never is a bluff), because most tight TAGs don't expect me to ever fold to river c/rs with something I would value bet. They see my high WtSD and assume I just get to SD, which I do often, but rarely against them. I think hero usually has JJ or a passive line AJ or AK here, and I usually fold all my one pair Ax hands.

The problem of course, is that my non-bluff range is A2s-A9/Ts, A5o-AJo, and sets when I bet the river. The best hero can hope for is that I fold half the pot. Even if I always call with my one pair Ax hands, the c/r still sucks against my range (right?).

There are some significant positive metagame effects to this play. He will certainly save portions of bets in the future when I miss value bets knowing he could value c/r light.

Actually, I think this is a good frequency play. If all you tight TAGs took this line ~3%-5% of the time against *good* lag TAGs, I think you would earn more in the long run than the line cost you in vacuum.

[Dane S]

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i think you are a dog to his river value bet range. this dude is the nittiest of nits and a gay tiltmonkey and i hope he reads this.

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My sentiments exactly except for the gay monkey stuff.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
Chris I'm glad you are here. Seriously when I get CRed on these rivers I think WTF and try and talk myself into calling with KQ high putting him on missed spades. The mediocre TAGs don't even stop to try and put him on a hand, they just call fast.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know they never fold a pair? Are they never folding to the C?R at all? The hands they fold you don't have any clue what they held (unless they show). How are we to estimate our opponents folding ranges when these hands are the ones that we have the least information on. %folded to a river c/r has got to be converging in PT (its not even a [censored] stat, is it?).