Small PP - two preflop questions.

[Shillx]

Gotta call with sevens against a maniac

[fretelöo]

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Hand 1 I'd call because I'm discounting SBs 3-bet.

Hand 2 is close so it probably doesn't matter. Understand there aren't many flops you are going to be putting any money in on though.

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Hand 2: Of course.

Hand 1 though: Does it really matter? As my set-odds are pretty much screwed with only 2 guys and a 3bet pf, I rely a lot on my hand holding it's own without hitting a set. With a maniac and a TAG in the hand, don't I get very much the worst of it (folding the winner if maniac starts raising - showing down the looser when TAG stays until showdown) most of the time?

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Your analysis of Hand 1 is bad. You get a lot of money with the best of it when you flop a set. Maniac will easily give you more than enough action to cover you when you miss your set (this is the essence of implied odds). Furthermore, TAG is a little more likely to pay off with a decent hand because of the presence of the maniac.

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I'm roughly 1:10 for hitting a set, right? So, for every SB I put in PF, I need to make roughly 10SB. If it's 3bet pf, I have to make 30SB if I hit. That means a 15BB pot. Against a TAG (who I would assume knows how to fold middle pair against aggression) and a lone maniac, I would think that's not so easy...

That at least is my take on implied odds, applied to this particular situation?

[davelin]

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I'm roughly 1:10 for hitting a set, right? So, for every SB I put in PF, I need to make roughly 10SB. If it's 3bet pf, I have to make 30SB if I hit.

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You've already put in a SB (in this example).

[Aaron W.]

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I'm roughly 1:10 for hitting a set, right?

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It's really about 8.5:1. The 10:1 number is used because sometimes you flop a set and lose, plus it takes into account that there will be money you put into the pot postflop that will inflate the pot size to something larger than what you actually profit. The 10:1 number is a soft number that can be adjusted slightly according to the situation.

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So, for every SB I put in PF, I need to make roughly 10SB. If it's 3bet pf, I have to make 30SB if I hit. That means a 15BB pot.

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You have already put 1 SB into the pot and that money doesn't belong to you anymore, so you are looking at putting in 2 SB. That means you are looking for a 10 BB pot on average by the end of the hand. You already expect the pot size to be about 5 BB before there is any postflop action, so you're already half-way there. If TAG flops a pair when he has AK/AQ/KQ, you'll probably get decent action out of him. If he has an overpair to the board and you flop a set, you'll get good action. If maniac flops a piece, you'll get loads of action.

In general, it's rare to find a situation where it's right to fold a pocket pair after putting money into the pot. The only case where I would even consider it is if I limp and it comes back capped, or if I limp and it comes back for 3 bets against players who play very conservatively postflop.

[neeeel]

"You have already put 1 SB into the pot and that money doesn't belong to you anymore, so you are looking at putting in 2 SB."

I know this is how it works, but it still doesnt make sense to me in this case. if you hit your set and win with 10:1 odds, then surely u need to make back 10 times what u put in *preflop*, other wise if u put in 3 small bets 10 times, ( 30 small bets) and only win 10 big bets back ( 20 small bets) then surely ur down 10 small bets on the deal?
what if u limp in, it gets raised after u, u call that, and then it gets raised after u again ( unlikely i know), then u only need to make 10 small bets back?

If i limp in with a small pocket pair, and it comes back to me 3-bet, i always fold, I know there may be times where ur small pocket pair can win unimproved , but they are few and far between. I guess if u flop a set, and the other 2 hit good hands as well, then ur in the money...

[kerowo]

I think the problem you are having is not making each decision to put money in the pot an independent one. Each time there is different information available and different conditions to think about. However, once you've put the money in it is no longer yours.

[neeeel]

yes i understand that, and if it comes back to me after limping, with 1 SB to put in and 8 SB in the pot, then i calculate it as 8:1 odds. What im asking is why my calculation above is wrong, and why it doesnt mean that u are losing 10 SB as described above?

[neeeel]

*bump*... would really like to know the answer

[unterfish]

*grunzing*
This is PF problem. And Im not expert at PF (cause I think its boring).
The first is yes IMO.
The second is marginal. Without the poster Id probably fold. With him Id call as you did.

[unterfish]

Wow. OK. Im asking the experts now (in hope they are gonna reply): Why is hand nr. 1 not a fold?