AA -- Riv decision

[Numfar]

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The question is whether our micro opponents play so badly that this is a call.

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This hand proves that they do [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's not a call just because villains are usually donks - although at these stakes that always has to be part of a read. It's a call because the only hands that are likely to be ahead don't (or shouldn't) play this way. We are getting over 2:1 and the likelihood of bluffs (or value bets with worse hands) make it a call.

Can't really comment on what the msnl players said except to say that if I was at a table of players that I knew to be good, I would be more likely to fold simply because they are less likely to fall for the check to induce a bluff trick. They would know that I have a decent hand and would more often just check behind - making a big bet = a hand more often. A decent player with something like TT would also just check behind here because their hand has showdown value & they know they aren't getting called by a hand they beat.

[Sigurd]

I would insta call.
By checking you are very likely to induce a bluff/value bet from a draw/pocket pair.

[Pokey]

Hands that beat you:

65 (six combinations)
54 (six combinations)
A5 (four combinations)
43 (twelve combinations)
32 (twelve combinations)
66 (three combinations)
55 (one combination)
44 (three combinations)
A3 (eight combinations)

Given the raise, I think we can rule out 43 and 32 most of the time -- it's rare to find an opponent who is THAT bad.

Hands that we beat:

A4 (six combinations)
A6 (six combinations)
77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK (42 combinations)

That's 31 likely (and 24 unlikely) hands that beat us, but 54 hands that we beat. Given that we're getting over 2-to-1 odds on the river, I think this is a call on the river.

However, I don't like your turn play in this hand. I'd probably go for a check/call on the turn: we're not really afraid of giving a free card to [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a 3, since neither of those are likely to have survived the flop bet, we induce a bluff from an overpair to the board (66+ will bet to push you off what he thinks are missed overcards), and we minimize our losses if we really are up against a better hand (like A5). If villain makes a strong turn bet, I call and check/call the river; if villain makes a small turn bet I probably call and lead for 2/3rds pot on the river, though I might check/call the river, too (depending on my mood and my opponent). Check-raising the turn is bad, since it drives away hands that we're not at all afraid of and it gets called by every hand that beats us.