#11
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
God, you're a [censored] prick. Try picking your targets better in the future.
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#12
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
Differences in opinion is what makes a market. Thanks for the opinion, I may adjust some of my numbers based on your thoughts. At the least, I'll give it more thought than I did before. Thanks.
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#13
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be? A lot of things can change between now and that meeting, but what do you think it will be if they played this weekend for the Conference Championship?
I used SD -3 in my numbers. |
#14
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...? Not that there really is a vast difference.
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#15
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
[ QUOTE ]
Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...? [/ QUOTE ] He already answered this question earlier in the thread. The numbers are what he believes to be zero-EV lines. |
#16
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
[ QUOTE ]
Yao, are you trying to predict what the lines will be or what they should be...? Not that there really is a vast difference. [/ QUOTE ] When I estimate lines for the purposes of value on futures, I try to predict what the lines will be. I want to be able to compare the relative value of futures prices versus the individual game prices. I may shade some of the lines if I have a strong opinion on a game versus where I think the market will be...but in this case, I didn't have a strong opinion. |
#17
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
King Yao,
Thanks. |
#18
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be? A lot of things can change between now and that meeting, but what do you think it will be if they played this weekend for the Conference Championship? I used SD -3 in my numbers. [/ QUOTE ] Whoever said the difference between SD and Balt was too much, I completely disagree. If they played this weekend at SD, no way the line would be lower than -3. If it didn't open at -3, I think it would go at -3.5 or -4. |
#19
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Re: My estimates for NFL Conference and Super Bowl odds
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think a potential BAL at SD line will be? [/ QUOTE ] I would guess SD -3.5. The public LOVES San Diego right now, and that might be enough to even make it 4. I'll still say 3.5 though, since I think sharps would pound the 4 into 3.5 soon enough anyway. |
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