20-40 fairly interesting hand

[Josh.]

i like. you have him pegged squarely for QQ-55 and i think he folds the smaller ones with some regularity. the only alternatives are check, get a free showdown and hope he has 66 or 55, or put in a bet getting about 8-1 on a bluff. those are way too good odds to pass up.

[Josh.]

i'd like to answer these questions because i support his decision on each street very strongly.


1. What do you think the 22/13/1.54 Button puts you on after you open from hijack, call his 3-bet 3-handed, and donk a flop you know he is going to autobet?

AK, AQ, TT-55 and possibly AJ or KQ

2. What does it mean when he raises the flop?

it means he probably doesnt have minor overcards. he has AK or AQ, or any pair. with the 3rd player in, most aggressive players are raising or folding here

3. What do you think he's going to do on the river?

i think one of two things can happen:
1. he doesn't read hands well (or is multitabling and doesn't have time to pay attention), sees an A, a K, and that he put in lots of bets, and assumes his TT-55 is no good and mucks without much thought.
2. he knows his opponent is a good player. he donked the flop then donked the turn. this signals some strength. one of the hands he put his opponent on was AK and that got there. it is also possible AQ got stubborn on the turn trying to represent a K. he knows most players will simply check and hope with a medium pair. also, the smaller the pair he has, the smaller the window there is for worse hands. the OP's river bet looks like a clear value bet. there aren't many hands he would bluff with. QJ doesnt make sense and as i said earlier, most people would check a medium pair.

4. Do you think you played the hand well?

yes

[worm33]

[ QUOTE ]
i like. you have him pegged squarely for QQ-55 and i think he folds the smaller ones with some regularity. the only alternatives are check, get a free showdown and hope he has 66 or 55, or put in a bet getting about 8-1 on a bluff. those are way too good odds to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeh once he called the turn I figured he had a PP, under a king more than likely better than mine. I was probably check folding the river but when the ace came I figured he might fold a hand slightly better than mine. Like I said I bet the turn mainly for him to fold 2 overcards to my pair like Aq-A9

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like. you have him pegged squarely for QQ-55 and i think he folds the smaller ones with some regularity. the only alternatives are check, get a free showdown and hope he has 66 or 55, or put in a bet getting about 8-1 on a bluff. those are way too good odds to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeh once he called the turn I figured he had a PP, under a king more than likely better than mine. I was probably check folding the river but when the ace came I figured he might fold a hand slightly better than mine. Like I said I bet the turn mainly for him to fold 2 overcards to my pair like Aq-A9

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm guessing that what SW is pointing out is that the A really doesn't change anything. in actuality it doesn't. of the times you are dealt AQ-A9, you will rarely follow the path that you chose in this hand. but in your opponent's mind, it is a terrible card. unless he is paying full attention (i know that if i'm at 8 tables and the situation comes up i might instamuck TT-55 because it just looks ugly) and can read hands well, he is going to see the ace as a bad card.

[worm33]

He had AQ. Either hes a [censored] or a REAL good hand reader who knew I had a small PP and he still had 2 overs.

[StellarWind]

Interesting thread:

1. AK is not a credible hand for Hero after he just calls preflop. The pot is 3-handed, the coldcalling BB is a huge LAG, and we only opened from hijack so the TAG 3-bettor has a substantial range. Even AQ should be capping this.

2. The flop bet is a transparent attempt to provoke a protection raise. It should be quite clear to Villain that Hero has a medium pocket pair.

3. Villain's flop raise with AQ is popular and really bad. He's raising the worse hand and exposing himself to a possible 3-bet in an attempt to force out a hand that doesn't mean much to him. The premium overcard outs have priority over any hand the LAG BB will fold. Villain should peel the flop and reassess on the turn.

4. Hero's stop-n-go turn bet continues the theme of fold-seeking behavior. No flop checkraise, no flop 3-bet, no turn checkraise. No attempt to make any money off of his hand--just protection. If you think about the action, it still looks like Hero has a medium pocket pair.

I don't know if Villain is a wonderful card reader or an idiot as OP suggests, but perhaps by calling with AQ he's simply following a policy of doing the opposite of what Hero clearly wants. Not a bad approach when you don't know what to do.

Villain should have raised the turn if he doesn't want to fold. There is an excellent chance to fold a medium pocket or A3s and if Hero 3-bets Villain is probably drawing completely dead.

5. Josh makes a good point about Villain folding the river because he isn't thinking or paying attention. It's still a thin bluff because if Villain is on the same page as me he knows he needs to call the river. If Villain is not on the same page as me then the A/K represent a big portion of his hand range. You need to fold about 10% of the hands that beat you as I assume that lower pockets won't bet. They'll attribute the river check to the ace and expect you to be calling. They'll be content to show and pray for a three or some nonsense like QJs.

My conclusion is that the river bet is OK but there isn't much in it. Maybe breakeven or a small winner.

Overall I think the whole postflop line is great against a mindless TAG and terrible versus a strong TAG. Since Villain misplayed every postflop street (should call flop, raise or fold turn, raise river) I guess he's poor and you played it very well.

[Jay.]

Turn bet is great. Say a preflop range of A9+ 66+ KQ KJ. The hands that still haven't made pair by the turn are just short of half of his range, given you have to call the turn if he bets leading out puts you in a bluff equity freeroll.

River is a must too.

Interest point, if you were villian with TT that ace card is a great card for you.