bottom set on monotone flop in 6-way pot, villian giving massive tells

[elliot]

[ QUOTE ]
My guess, he was holding something stupid like 8d 4c and you allowed him to suck out by just flat calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is not a chance in hell he ever has 84 here, firing two bullets OOP against a player that obviously wants to continue with the hand?

[TheNewf]

I'd get away from this on the river for sure. Not raising the flop is terrible though.

[elliot]

i agree with the comments that i should have raised/shoved the turn, but i really dont like raising the flop, especially if either of the blinds comes along.

[elliot]

any more feedback before i post results?

[Augie]

elliot,

Why don't you like raising the flop? Sure, there are lots of flops/hands, where calling on the flop, reevaluationg the turn, letting position work for you, etc., etc., is a great plan . . . but not here.

I'm going to ignore your tell analysis, because you don't know exactly what it means. It sounds like he likes his hand, but even without the tell stuff, his aggressive betting, on a scary board, tells you that he likes his hand anyway.

Moving on, there are only 3 hands that beat you on the flop. The 2 higher sets, and the made flush. And you have major redraws to the boat v. a made flush.

There are a lot of hands that you are ahead of right now, two pair, pair with a lone diamond, overpairs, etc.

The main thing - you are crushing his total Range of Hands. That, coupled with this draw heavy board, compels you to raise this flop.

I would raise to 3500ish, and call a push. Keep in mind that you put in almost 3500 on the flop and turn as calls. Don't you think you could use those chips more effectively by raising the flop?

Perhaps I haven't been very convincing, but seriously, what are your reasons for not raising this flop?

And if the tell is the basis for your argument, I think you need to explain how you think his 'weak means strong' act affects his range.

Even if you put him on a narrow range (and I don't, but you were there), where its 50% he flopped a flush, 15% he flopped a higher set, and the other 35% he has a hand weaker than yours, you still should have the right price to continue because of the strength of your hand, and because of the strength of your redraws v. a made flush. (And no, I haven't done the math, but I suspect if you do, you should find that I'm right)

Obviously, you continued with the hand, but it's still imperative that you raise the flop and get value from the weaker hands in his range. He is going to get value from you when he has you beat anyway, because of the nature of the situation: You have an excellent hand, and his range of hands contains too many possibilities to narrow down, even with a tell.

Be good,

Augie

[elliot]

i guess in a sense i was looking at the hand far too narrowly, as i figured there were only one specific situation that worried me. (if we get it all in on a non-diamond turn card and he has the flopped flush, oh well)

this is my logic, and i know there are huge holes in it, although if i were to have a rock solid idea of his hand range i think it makes a little more sense.

he the queen with either the nut or second nut flush draw kicker, and will call a shove on any of the postflop streets regardless of if he hits his flush or not.

knowing this, i want to try and see the river as cheaply as possible, figuring that if he hits his flush i can get away from the hand, and if he doesnt (the other 2/3rds of the time) i stack him.

if i shove the flop, my EV is about +$3400 (losing $10k 33% of the time, gaining $10k 66% of the time) whereas if my read is correct and i stack him on the river and correctly fold when he hits his flush, my EV is +$5600 (losing $3300 33% of the time, gaining $10k 66% of the time)

i realize my reasoning is probbaly wrong, and obviously to put an opponent on such a specific hand range is unrealistic and retarded, but i do think it was applicable here since every single other scenario plays itself. (flopped flush stacks me, total air doesnt pay off a raise anyway, set of sevens stacks me, i stack two pair)

[adanthar]

Among other things such as 'your hand range is terrible', you forgot 'there are two people behind me that have the odds to draw now'.

[elliot]

results: i call, and villain turns up Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], my set of sixes beating his top two pair. i am immediately sick to my stomach at how badly i played the hand.

[elliot]

last bump for any feedback.