Jelly's EuroHockey

[jelly]

Switzerland

Lugano (+123) at Zurich 0.4u to win 0.5u

[jelly]

Czech 1.liga

Second level of the league system. Never watched a single game, almost all info comes from reading club web pages. This league has had bad reputation and local bookies refuse to take bets on it this season (claiming match fixing). Hopefully this will make the gangs concentrate on different games. Pinny limits are low anyway.

Play of the Day
Kadan +2 at Chomutov (+117 & +102) 1.42u to win 1.55u
Local derby so HFA is no big deal. Kadan recently got a very good GK and has some solid results since. Still value at +1.5 IMO. Placed two max bets.

Couple more bets

Jihlava +0.5 at Ostrava (+101) 0.71u to Win 0.72u
Trebic -1 vs. Olomouc (-104) 0.71u to Win 0.68u
Beroun +1.5 at Prostejov (+104) 0.71u to Win 0.74u
Mlada Boleslav (-109) vs. Usti n/L 0.5u to Win 0.46u

[jelly]

POTD ended with an everyday bad beat for split pot. We have all been there before: Kadan pulls goalie, has two great chances to tie the game, misses and concedes EN goal hit from defense zone. Next please.


Wednesday 6/Dec

Czech 1.liga

Chomutov-Kadan 3:1 PUSH
Ostrava-Jihlava 5:3 LOSS
M.Boleslav-Usti n/L 4:4 (5:4SH) PUSH
Trebic-Olomouc 6:1 WIN
Prostejov-Beroun 2:1 WIN


Other picks

RUS:Chelyabinsk LOSS
RUS:Cerepovec LOSS
RUS:Togliatti LOSS
SUI:Lugano WIN

1.liga
POTD 0-0-1 0u
All 2-1-2 +0.71u

Czech Rep.
POTD 1-0-1 +2.3u
All 4-2-2 +3.51u

Other countries 2-6-0 +0.61u

Grand total 6-8-2 +4.12u

[jelly]

Czech Extraliga

Play of the Day
Sparta +0.5 at Pardubice (-107) 3.57u to win 3.34u

Big rivalry game topped with aniversaries. 50 years ago, the two teams played their first match in top league and neither team have relegated since. This match is Game no. 200 (no other pair of current Extraliga teams played more). The teams are even on points, so the reason for Pardubice being favorite are
1) HFA - I expect a reasonable portion of Sparta fans going for 1.5 hour train trip on Friday evening. Arena will be full and loud but Sparta will have its share.
2) recent performance - Sparta lost 0-5 in the last matchup at Pardubice (27/Oct) but never lost two or more goals since, although they do not seem good at first glance losing in shooutout home to weakish Kladno. They are not dominated by Pardubice either, as they beat them on 9/Sep 6-1 (went to that game and Pardubice were just cold). Pardubice have nice but not very meaningful home streak and their good looking 5-2 last match was against team that had to get a couple of juniors to fill in long injury list.
3) Couple of Sparta forwards are out and there are 4 guys borrowed from 1.liga. I think public and bookies are overreacting as causalities are mostly 3rd and 4th line so it is no big blow. I also expect the coach to play just 3 lines most of the match

Both teams are playing quite offensively and even more against each other (I have seen a couple of these games as these are the two teams I like most). I see this as another reason not to give too much credit to favorites. Pardubice are slight favorite at home, but my line is 130-135.
Obviously enough, over looks attractive. I expected the line to be at 6, so 5.5 looks nice, no big play though

Sparta +161 at Pardubice 1.42u to win 2.29u
Pardubice/Sparta OVER 5.5 (-127) 1.27u to win 1u

Line moved a lot as I type.

Other matches

Vsetin (+187) at Ceske Budejovice 0.53u to win 1u
Ceske Budejovice/Vsetin UNDER 5.5 (-115) 0.58u to win 0.5u

Vsetin showed they have a shot at anyone, downside is that people picked up on it a little, so the line is less atractive than I expected (I actually expected this to be POTD). Still some value left. Budejovice beat Slavia comfortoably but had good deal of luck at the begining of the match and opponent did not play up to their name so no need to overrate them. Small play on under. Laying a goal is not attractive to me as I do not trust Vsetin to tie in the last minute anywhere as often as average team and do not want to suffer ENG.

Trinec (+197) at Slavia 1u to win 2u
Trinec +1 at Slavia (-113) 2.8u to win 2.5u

My first impression was the line was a typo but it was not - you will get similiar prizes with Czech books. The fact that it is #3 at #10 (of 14 teams) is misleading as Slavia is better team. Trinec were running hot this season and their budget and recent history is nowhere close last season finalist Slavia who are recovering from tragic start of the season. Still people seem to pay for the name and size too much given the weak display by Slavia at Budejovice. Long way for Trinec to Prague (just under 400km in the bus) but it is not their longest trip by far and they actually picked up more points on the road than Slavia did at home. Attendance is going to be poor. Would be POTD on a normal day.

Edited to add record:

Extraliga
POTD 1-0-0 +2.3u
All 2-1-0 +2.8u

[jelly]

Russia Superliga

Kr.Sovetov (+670) vs. CSKA 0.5u to win 3.35u

Moscow derby. Kr.Sovetov suck but CSKA are no miracle either. KS are rock bottom but they already surprised #2 Omsk twice so they can make points at times. Anything over +500 looks like a bet.

Slovakia

Zilina (+421) at Kosice 0.12u to win 0.5u
Slovan -0.5 at Nitra (+131) 0.38 to win 0.5u

Germany DEL

Iserlohn +0.5 at Eisbaren (+124) 0.4u to win 0.5u

YTD outside CZE 2-0-6 +0.61u

[livin_a_lie]

Sparta 4-3, Nice call! Being the action junkie that I am, I followed +160 for a lil bit. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Sparta 4-3, Nice call! Being the action junkie that I am, I followed +160 for a lil bit. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks mate, you chose the right spot [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]





Scoreboard

Pardubice-Sparta 4:3 WIN,WIN,WIN
Vsetin-Budejovice 2:4 LOSS,LOSS
Slavia-Trinec 8:1 LOSS,LOSS

Sparta: dream scenario, down 0-1 and 1-2 but they turn it to 4-2 and 4-3 goal only came in last minute, thanks guys you saved my day because:

Vsetin: Two own goals by Vsetin decided the match. Can it get worse? Sure, just reduce to 2-3, pull goalie and let them kill the under into empty net. Consolation price for refusing to lay 1 goal for exactly this reason [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Slavia: 8-1, WTF?

+1.72u for the day.

Extraliga
POTD: 2-0-0 +5.64u
Non POTD picks: 3-5-0 -1.12u
All picks: 5-5-0 +4.52u

Other picks
RUS: Kr.Sovetov WIN
SVK: Zilina LOSS
SVK: Slovan LOSS
GER: Iserlohn LOSS

+2.45u for the day, nice with 1-3-0 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Non CZE total: 3-9-0 +3.06u

Grand total: 10-15-2 +8.29u

[jelly]

Saturday 9/Dec

CZE 1.liga

POTD
Trebic +2.5 at Usti n/L (-105) 0.71u to win 0.65u

This is crazy. Usti is much better, but 2.5 goals is too much (cca by 0.5 goal), Trebic are solid team. Unfortunately, I cannot put more money in as I am leaving now and the limit is still low.

Jihlava +0.5 at Olomouc (-150) 0.75u to win 0.5u
Kadan +0.5 vs. M.Boleslav (-104) 0.52u to win 0.5u
Beroun +0.5 vs. Brno (-122) 0.61u to win 0.5u

Extraliga
Liberec (+101) at Znojmo 1u to win 1u

Not much value here but I do not care for Liberec underestimating Vsetin (can happen to anyone). At least they have to show the fans (TV game) that they want the points back. My line is like -108.

[jelly]

Tough day in 1.liga, only POTD was close.

Usti n/L-Trebic 4:1 LOSS
Olomouc-Jihlava 4:1 LOSS
Kadan-M.Boleslav 1:4 LOSS
Beroun-Brno 2:6 LOSS

Znojmo-Liberec 2:3 WIN

Extraliga
POTD 2-0-0 +5.64u
Other 4-5-0 -0.12u

1.liga
POTD 0-1-1 -0.71u
Other 2-4-1 -1.17u

Non CZE
Total 3-9-0 +3.06u

Totals
Extraliga 6-5-0 +5.52u
1.liga 2-5-2 -1.18u
Non CZE 3-9-0 +3.06u

Total 11-19-2 +7.40u

[jelly]

Sunday 10/Dec

Slovakia

Martin (+308) at Kosice 0.49u to win 1.5u
Nitra (+181) at Poprad 0.28u to win 0.5u
Skalica (+125) at Zilina 0.8u to win 1u