100NL: Middle set on the turn

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I should have mentioned that CO has limped and then bet the flop a couple of times...thus looking for the check raise. Also, am I getting max value here by leading the flop when neither of my opponents are likely to have a hand? I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong, I just wanna know the thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet the flop. Why are neither of your opponents likely to have a hand worth calling here? There's a flush draw and a several one-pair style hands that will call. But IMO the magnitude of each mistake we could make (either betting when we should check, or vice versa) is the biggest deciding factor.

If they will both make correct folds here, then betting when you should check only costs you money on the rare occasion that they catch a worse-but-callable hand on the turn. This happens <10% of the time IMO. And since there's one less round of betting, you're going to win a smaller pot anyways.

Conversely, checking when you should bet keeps you from building a big pot. You can get a good chunk of someone's stack if you bet in the right circumstances, costing you alot of money if you check when you should bet.

I'm basically trying to say that if we mistakenly check, we'll lose like 10x the value that we lose when we mistakenly bet. So the bet can be wrong much, much more often than the check and betting can still be higher EV.

[jzpiano]

Bet flop, reraise more on turn and push

[SilverLining1]

SB doesn't know what he's doing/sucks/why aren't you betting this flop?

If it were in a live game, I'd kick SB in the nuts and tell him to learn how to raise/stop being a pussy. Then I'd take his chips and shovel them into the center of the pot myself:

Opponent (on floor, in pain): Whhhyyyyy are you doing that? You're not allowed to do that.

Me: STFU, you are gonna get it in there on the turn anyway. (to dealer): OK, deal the river.

Raise all-in. He probably has Ahxh and thinks he has the best hand. If not, protect your hand now. OH yeah, if you bet the flop here and built it some more, this hand wouldn't look so bad on the turn.