Poker - Skill or Luck game?

[amulet]

a place like 2+2 that set up for people who love (and study) poker - and currently 24% of said people belive poker is luck. makes you wonder what the general population must think - maybe that is why there are so many fish, and why internet poker gets banned. if these are the numbers at a site that sells books and shares advice, i understand why some of us make as much as we do at the tables 24% :-)!!

[amulet]

there are many books you can read to understand the standard deviation. they will explain that fluctuations are normal, however, that short term luck will eventually give in to long term skill. i can recommend several math books if requested, but i suggest you can begin with two terrific 2+2 books; "gambling theory and other topics" by mason malmuth and "getting the best" of it by david sklansky.

[KajunKenny]

I understand the math and statistical probability behind poker. I am trying to figure out how I can explain this to people who don't understand poker.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand the math and statistical probability behind poker. I am trying to figure out how I can explain this to people who don't understand poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell them that you will flip a coin and they must call heads or tails. They must bet $100 every flip. You will see that bet with $50. Winner each flip gets $150. Repeat one thousand times.

If they don't agree to this, ask them why not.

Also, drawing to the nut flush on the river is about the easist holdem scenario to explain mathematically. Another easy one is AA vs. KK preflop HU. Show why sometimes you would actually take a bet on that with KK.

[NewfieBullet]

The problem with debating luck or skill in poker is that through TV most people see poker and tournament poker as the same thing. In tournament poker luck is a much bigger factor than regular ring games.
You say Tiger Woods would never lose to an amateur at the masters, and you are correct. But if Tiger and an amateur were to play a one hole par 3 then luck is a variable. The amateur could hit a hole in one or Tiger could miss the green etc.
Any amateur could bust Phil Ivey out of a tournament but if Ivey and the amateur played a HU match with unlimited rebuys until one player conceded to the other Phil Ivey would win every time, as Tiger Woods would beat the amateur at the Masters.

[KajunKenny]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with debating luck or skill in poker is that through TV most people see poker and tournament poker as the same thing. In tournament poker luck is a much bigger factor than regular ring games.
You say Tiger Woods would never lose to an amateur at the masters, and you are correct. But if Tiger and an amateur were to play a one hole par 3 then luck is a variable. The amateur could hit a hole in one or Tiger could miss the green etc.
Any amateur could bust Phil Ivey out of a tournament but if Ivey and the amateur played a HU match with unlimited rebuys until one player conceded to the other Phil Ivey would win every time, as Tiger Woods would beat the amateur at the Masters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty good last couple of post. Do ya'll mind if I copy these into the other forum. I won't mention your name. I tried explaining the math and these people were like "huh". I also tried explaining that if I am constantly getting 3:1 on my money and I am a 38% faviorite that I will make money. Luck has nothing to do with it.

[LexLuthor]

I always reply to my non-poker playing friends by saying something like "Skill is used to manage your luck."

As others have posted, this conversation is largely dependent on semantics. "Luck" can be considered how frequently you get certain hole cards, how the flop hits your hand, etc. But over time, I've also come to learn that "luck" can also be having the nut hand when someone else has second nut (think of all the times you've had the mortal nuts...and got no action because no one else could catch a hand).

Which is a slightly convoluted way of saying that "luck" is a matter of perception, dependent on the outcome of a particular situation.

And poker is above all else a situational game. Yes, you can't control the cards. But in every moment of every hand, it takes skill to analyze the situation -- where am I at, betting patterns, awareness of stack sizes, tells, psychological factors, and on and on. In a game of incomplete information, the ability to filter information to enhance your decision making is critical. Some are able to do this intuitively, others have to be more deliberate. Either way, the randomness of the cards is just a new piece of information to add to your analysis at each street.

Analysis and decision-making is clearly a skill. Over time, you can use that skill to maximize profitable situations and minimize unprofitable ones. That skill can sometimes help you extricate yourself from an "unlucky" predicament you have found yourself in.

Etc., etc.

[Acein8ter]

It's a combination and you need both.