Standard, Genius, or Spewing? Different PS500+35 Hand

[MLG]

yeah, you have to fold the river. i kinda like villain's line.

[Foucault]

OK, I've looked at results now. I don't think this is optimal with a flush draw. To make the turn bet more profitable than a check, he's got to have fold equity on the turn, a lot of fold equity for a second barrel on a blank river, or solid implied odds if he gets there on the river.

Leading the turn is not representing an A, it looks like Q/flush draw/air, so I think most players will call with probably any pair and certainly any A, so most of the time the only hands that fold are unpaired cards against which his hand has decent equity any way.

A second barrel on a blank river is probably the only way to make this line profitable, but it's also pretty risky. A lot of players are going to call with an A, and it's expensive when they do.

With the pair on the board, implied odds aren't great either, especially not relative to what they are if you get there on the river without betting the turn. Pair on the board also means potential reverse implied odds, especially if you get mini-raised on the turn or something.

Once you c/c the flop, it's pretty unlikely that button with fire a second barrel on this turn. If he does, his range is probably Q or air, and a c/r might be profitable. But regardless, you'll get a free river a good chunk of the time, and probably can get a bet paid off somewhat often.

[NoahSD]

Yeah.. I don't like villain's line given the turn card because people don't fold enough. I think villain's line is solid on a lot of turn cards, though.

[MLG]

man i disagree. people fold the turn all the time if they dont have an A. They think he's FOS he cant have an A, and then they fold anyway. As long as you can occasionally have AK/A5/AQ or another Q here I think leading this turn is fine.

[uclabruinz]

So we have a button raise and a cbet and we assume he has an A? Hmmmm.

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
So we have a button raise and a cbet and we assume he has an A? Hmmmm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Were you responding to MLG? Where does he assume someone has an A?

[uclabruinz]

No, responding to those who don't like a turn bet here.

[MLG]

ucla, not sure if you were responding to me. I was saying that I like the blind leading out with his flush draw when the A hits because most likely the button does NOT have an A. And even though the A can be a hard sell for the blind because it doesnt make much sense, often enough the button will have nothing, or will skeptically fold the little that he does have that I think the play works.

[uclabruinz]

If he doesn't have an A or Q he folds, and I'm no math whiz but I'm not going to assume he has them often enough just based on a button raise and cbet to make leading the turn -EV, not to mention that if he calls with an A or Q and you hit your flush you're getting paid off a large percentage of the time.

[uclabruinz]

Sorry for the confusion I created by using quick reply. I was agreeing completely with MLG.