I hate AQ so much. Hand vs Juanda, Niagara wpt

[0evg0]

wouldn't a turn lead get rid of weaker aces way too often? not to mention it gives juanda a cheaper shot at (semi)bluff-raising

[FortunaMaximus]

Not if it paired the kicker across the board. And those might just call, possibly raise, setting up a river valuebet.

I think so anyway. Happy to be wrong these days.

[stevepa]

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steve,
I would have led the turn. why didnt you?

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I think he usually folds worse hands plus it sucks when he raises. But much moreso because I thought the combination of us never playing a pot and me checking the turn would make him very very likely to bluff. I just need him to have hands that he can bluff with often enough, and I think it's probably relatively close (because he's probably not floating often with two people still to act behind him).

Steve

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
steve,
I would have led the turn. why didnt you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he usually folds worse hands plus it sucks when he raises. But much moreso because I thought the combination of us never playing a pot and me checking the turn would make him very very likely to bluff. I just need him to have hands that he can bluff with often enough, and I think it's probably relatively close (because he's probably not floating often with two people still to act behind him).

Steve

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i agree with what you're saying except his bluff-frequency on the turn now that you've checked. he's not floating anything here, and this is a pretty safe f'n flop. there's the heart draw and that's about it. he's not calling with second-pair sandwiched between you and the utg raiser

[MLG]

I'd lead there a lot because i never expect to be raised off the best hand. there are a couple of ways he can talk himself into a call with something like hearts or or AJish hands. also, oop against a good player im ok with trying to make my life easier. against a bad or predictable player i think a check is better. but against a player who is gonna apply pressure both with good hands and worse hands, with a solid frequency I just dont see enough advantages to checking to warrant making your life that much more difficult.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree with what you're saying except his bluff-frequency on the turn now that you've checked. he's not floating anything here, and this is a pretty safe f'n flop. there's the heart draw and that's about it. he's not calling with second-pair sandwiched between you and the utg raiser

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I'm saying if he has a hand that he can bluff with, he's bluffing very often. The problem is there may not be enough hands in his range he can bluff with to make my calldown good.

Steve

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i agree with what you're saying except his bluff-frequency on the turn now that you've checked. he's not floating anything here, and this is a pretty safe f'n flop. there's the heart draw and that's about it. he's not calling with second-pair sandwiched between you and the utg raiser

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I'm saying if he has a hand that he can bluff with, he's bluffing very often. The problem is there may not be enough hands in his range he can bluff with to make my calldown good.

Steve

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okay i agree with this

[stevepa]

mike, that's something I've been thinking about a fair bit recently as I seem to get myself into a ton of tough spots against good players. I haven't really decided what I think about it yet though

[0evg0]

how often is juanda folding AQ to a turn bet?

does he have AQ often enough for this to even be a reason for/against betting?

i'm starting to like lead turn more.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lead there a lot because i never expect to be raised off the best hand. there are a couple of ways he can talk himself into a call with something like hearts or or AJish hands. also, oop against a good player im ok with trying to make my life easier. against a bad or predictable player i think a check is better. but against a player who is gonna apply pressure both with good hands and worse hands, with a solid frequency I just dont see enough advantages to checking to warrant making your life that much more difficult.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post really makes me feel like I suck at poker.