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#11
10-29-2006, 11:37 AM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
I you bet the turn and river, villain is getting over 3:1 to call down with a pocket pair. If this player opens from MP2 with hands like 55-99 then he is calling this down.
Betting the turn seems pretty safe here since you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a semi-bluff is very unlikely. Problem is if you are behind and get raised you have to call. So this is a classic checking with outs. As for betting the river...this one can go either way. If he was sitting on a c-r on the turn, not many a player would try it again on the river. The only hand we might get to fold is AQ. The only hands that might call for value are AJ/AT? 
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#12
10-29-2006, 03:06 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
I dont think it is out of the question that an unknown could be opening with any of the following hands: AT,AJ,A9s,A8s,QJs,JTs.
These are all hands that can overtake you with a free card and hands that may fold to a bet on the turn. There is also the very slim chance that an unknown will fold a pocket pair here. If you had a good read on villians opening range then a check behind may make more sense but without any read I think you need to take the standard semi bluff line here.
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#13
10-29-2006, 03:47 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
I dont think it is out of the question that an unknown could be opening with any of the following hands: AT,AJ,A9s,A8s,QJs,JTs. [/ QUOTE ] All of those hands have 2-3 outs, except JTs which has 4 outs unless it's J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Such hands are at least as likely to improve to a second-best hand as they are to improve to a better hand, so the question is do the bluffs I snap off by calling a river bluff make up for the occasions I let him win.
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#14
10-29-2006, 03:56 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I dont think it is out of the question that an unknown could be opening with any of the following hands: AT,AJ,A9s,A8s,QJs,JTs. [/ QUOTE ] All of those hands have 2-3 outs, except JTs which has 4 outs unless it's J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Such hands are at least as likely to improve to a second-best hand as they are to improve to a better hand, so the question is do the bluffs I snap off by calling a river bluff make up for the occasions I let him win. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, this line also avoids getting check/raised, guarantees a sd and saves 1BB when villain decides to check/call the river with a PP (this is assuming you do not try to valuebet the river).
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#15
10-29-2006, 04:05 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
so the question is do the bluffs I snap off by calling a river bluff make up for the occasions I let him win. [/ QUOTE ] This is why I dont particularly like this line against an unknown as you have no indication of whether he will bluff at you when he misses.
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#16
10-29-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
I like it till you bet the river. The % of his range that you beat when he calls is very small. [/ QUOTE ] I think the K on the turn prevents this from being a good value bet. With a low board, you could expect him to call with a smaller A, but I think he would just fold it here.
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#17
10-29-2006, 05:21 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] so the question is do the bluffs I snap off by calling a river bluff make up for the occasions I let him win. [/ QUOTE ] This is why I dont particularly like this line against an unknown as you have no indication of whether he will bluff at you when he misses. [/ QUOTE ] That doesn't mean we can't make reasonable estimations of what % of 5/10 players bet the river here.
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#18
10-29-2006, 05:22 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
I think the K on the turn prevents this from being a good value bet. With a low board, you could expect him to call with a smaller A, but I think he would just fold it here. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not so sure I should do this against an unknown anyway, but I certainly wouldn't do it if the K hadn't turned. AK becomes way more likely in that case.
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#19
10-29-2006, 05:27 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think the K on the turn prevents this from being a good value bet. With a low board, you could expect him to call with a smaller A, but I think he would just fold it here. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not so sure I should do this against an unknown anyway, but I certainly wouldn't do it if the K hadn't turned. AK becomes way more likely in that case. [/ QUOTE ] Yup, on the other hand I would have bet the turn if the K hadn't showed up.
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#20
10-29-2006, 05:30 PM
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Re: [5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think the K on the turn prevents this from being a good value bet. With a low board, you could expect him to call with a smaller A, but I think he would just fold it here. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not so sure I should do this against an unknown anyway, but I certainly wouldn't do it if the K hadn't turned. AK becomes way more likely in that case. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I'm seeing your line of thinking here. Still, you have to remember that you must beat him at least 50% of the time he calls your bet. I guess there's also some intangible value of not having to show your cards. I guess this value bet really depends on what you think of a typical unknown on this site at these limits. Personally, I can't see even the worst opponents calling with AJ or less.
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