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#11
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[ QUOTE ]
...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake. [/ QUOTE ] ...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1. |
#12
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Did he hear Doug ridiculing him for folding too much? That may push him a bit to try and make a play but I seriosly doubt it. He has a Q. Find the muck.
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#13
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This board and action leads to lots of river bluffs with hands like AA, KK, diamonds. Maybe he is not so tight and has just been card dead.
I know I've made similar bets after being card-dead for a couple hours. Too many unknowns, call. EDIT: could be a fold if you pick up a read. Some players will always have a Q here. EDIT: good posts. |
#14
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake. [/ QUOTE ] ...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not entirely sure it's a misplay with the overpair here...Let's imagine we're in the villain's shoes with AA. [ QUOTE ] Horrible player limps in MP, folded to me I raise K J in the CO. SB(tight guy) calls, BB calls. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, we all know villian should raise here, but maybe he's thinking he wants to keep a couple of victims in, and a three bet will scare em off. Assume that's what he did. [ QUOTE ] Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me, I bet, SB checkraises, others fold and I call. [/ QUOTE ] Villian decides the pot is big enough that he wants to charge the straight and flush draws, or get them out of the way. [ QUOTE ] Turn is J . SB bets, I raise, he calls. [/ QUOTE ] Villian is scared of the second J. [ QUOTE ] River is Q . SB bets, I...? [/ QUOTE ] Villian sees tht the J can't raise him now, decides he can't check-fold, and wants to extract value if you have KK. If he's good enough to fold to a raise, then I like his bet. Back to Justin's position, I would call. --dan |
#15
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake. [/ QUOTE ] ...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not entirely sure it's a misplay with the overpair here...Let's imagine we're in the villain's shoes with AA. [ QUOTE ] Horrible player limps in MP, folded to me I raise K J in the CO. SB(tight guy) calls, BB calls. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, we all know villian should raise here, but maybe he's thinking he wants to keep a couple of victims in, and a three bet will scare em off. Assume that's what he did. [ QUOTE ] Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me, I bet, SB checkraises, others fold and I call. [/ QUOTE ] Villian decides the pot is big enough that he wants to charge the straight and flush draws, or get them out of the way. [ QUOTE ] Turn is J . SB bets, I raise, he calls. [/ QUOTE ] Villian is scared of the second J. [ QUOTE ] River is Q . SB bets, I...? [/ QUOTE ] Villian sees tht the J can't raise him now, decides he can't check-fold, and wants to extract value if you have KK. If he's good enough to fold to a raise, then I like his bet. Back to Justin's position, I would call. --dan [/ QUOTE ] what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent? |
#16
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[ QUOTE ]
what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent? [/ QUOTE ] Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls. Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely. |
#17
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent? [/ QUOTE ] Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls. Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely. [/ QUOTE ] Guys, There is almost no way this villain has AA/KK. This is a tight player at a Vegas 40/80, not a clueless player at a home game. If he's on a bluff, its with an underpair or busted draw. There is still some chance he has a J, particularly if he is angry with OP or thinks he's picked up a "tell". For those reasons, I'd call, but a better player might already know how to fold here. |
#18
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Izmet would be disappointed, but I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read.
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#19
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This is a must call in my regular game. The "Big Draw" with a stab on the river play....
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#20
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[ QUOTE ]
I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read. [/ QUOTE ] So you need 49BB before you'd consider calling. |
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