To bet or not to bet the river... that is the question

[Fabian11]

Are we able to put CO on something? He can have virtually anything. I would expext to see hands like suited connectors including 7 or 9, or x6s or 2 high cards.

[detruncate]

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I c/c. Don't see many worse hands calling, nor any better folding.

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Bozlax is correct that b/f'ing will generally be better than c/c'ing vs loose opponents. Even when both are -EV, it's less -EV.

If we're checking we should be c/f'ing vs anyone but a LAG or tricky player who will often get here with a worse hand + can be counted on to bluff when checked to a high % of the time. Villain seemed to fit this profile in my opinion, + he seems like the kind of guy to find a bluff raise often enough to be troublesome.

[Str8Fish]

This is how I understand the conversation with btspider about this hand:

On the river, we need villain to have 22,33,55,86,T6,J6 A-high, or busted straight draw to win this. Once he calls the turn, he could either be on a flush draw, has one of the preceeding hands, or has a 5 and is looking for his straight. The question is, is it better to c/c on the river or bet/fold? Does someone with a 40% VP$IP have enough busted 5 hands,22,33,86,T6,J6,A-high to make up for the times he has a made flush, better 6x hand than us, hit his pair of 7's on the turn? This guy's range is very large, but a lot of his range does beat us unfortunately. Btspider suggested a c/c. What do you think?

[Smurph64]

I came in on the end of this conversation but I like the c/c line here much better than the b/f line.

[milesdyson]

i'd like more of a read but i would bet fold or check fold. check calling makes little sense.

[milesdyson]

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boz others disagree that this is a b/f on the river. Including wookie and btspider. What are we putting him on?

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With what you've given us, I can't speak for you (or for Wookie or bt for that matter) but I can't put him on anything. That's why I said A-B-C. On a scary board OOP you bet your weak made hands on the river to give your opponent an opportunity to fold, especially when a raise will tell you that you're beat. If your hand's stronger, but not a monster (e.g. a hand you NEED to show down), c/c is fine with me, but 3rd pair on a straighty board doesn't fit that criteria.

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i agree with your conclusion but this is never a reason to bet the river. there are still some worse hands that call here. better hands never ever fold. if you knew the outcome of your bet would be him folding, you would choose not to bet the river.

[Hielko]

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This is how I understand the conversation with btspider about this hand:

On the river, we need villain to have 22,33,55,86,T6,J6 A-high, or busted straight draw to win this. Once he calls the turn, he could either be on a flush draw, has one of the preceeding hands, or has a 5 and is looking for his straight. The question is, is it better to c/c on the river or bet/fold? Does someone with a 40% VP$IP have enough busted 5 hands,22,33,86,T6,J6,A-high to make up for the times he has a made flush, better 6x hand than us, hit his pair of 7's on the turn? This guy's range is very large, but a lot of his range does beat us unfortunately. Btspider suggested a c/c. What do you think?

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Check/fold the river. Villain is passive and isn't going to 'value bet' a worse hand than yours on the river. He could be bluffing, but given his passive nature his bluffing frequency will be to low so you can fold.

[bozlax]

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i agree with your conclusion but this is never a reason to bet the river.

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This is flatly not true. There are plenty of situations where Hero knows he can't win in a showdown, and bets hoping Villan will fold.

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there are still some worse hands that call here. better hands never ever fold. if you knew the outcome of your bet would be him folding a worse hand, you would choose not to bet the river.

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As to the first part of this, you and I have gone round and round about whether weak players will fold worse hands for one bet on the river. I understand what you're saying and disagree.

Given your premise, your conclusion makes sense. As I don't agree with the premise, I've changed the conclusion to fit the way I see the hand.

[milesdyson]

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i agree with your conclusion but this is never a reason to bet the river.

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This is flatly not true. There are plenty of situations where Hero knows he can't win in a showdown, and bets hoping Villan will fold.

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yeah that's called bluffing.

you know what i meant, and this has nothing to do with what i said. our hero has a pair on this river. no one will fold this river with a better hand than our pair. VALUE BETs do not get their VALUE from players folding better hands. you are speaking of a bluff, which 100% does not apply to this hand.

i dunno what else to say. i don't really believe that you think this guy might fold a better hand. what better hand do you think he's going to fold? A6? i mean, you have to be not thinking this through. you have probably been called by A5 and 22 on this river, yet right now you're saying that the guy is going to fold a monster such as A6.

i think what really is going on here is psychological. when you bet this river and the player folds, you are psychologically relieved. you are very glad that you did not get raised, and you are very glad to win a nice pot when you weren't sure it was going to happen. the thoughts before making this value bet are, "well maybe he calls with a worse hand. if i check call i only lose when he bets. hopefully i dont get raised." then you make the bet, see him fold, and forget all about it. all that matters to you is that you won the pot. you have to step back. be results oriented for a second. like i said before, if you could see the future and you could see that he would fold to a river bet, you would NOT bet the river. this is because you know with almost utmost certainty that his river fold means that he did not have a hand better than yours. thus, you would conclude that the only way to get value out of his hand is by checking and hoping he bluffs the hand he would fold.

summary: you are speaking of bluffs. not value bets. no one (especially with stats like this) folds a better hand than your Q6 on this board.

[Shillx]

Looks like a check/fold to me. Of all the options a check/call is far and away the worst.