Is mild strategy discussion at the table that bad?

[AngusThermopyle]

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Hand 1: 47.2466 % { JJ }
Hand 2: 37.3871 % { AKo }
Hand 3: 15.3664 % { random }

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this surprises me a little.
But this would also include the possibility of Hand 3 holding one of the A's or K's that the Hand 2 guy would want.
It also includes other GOOD random holdings all the way up to AA.

If you more narrowly define Hand 3's hold-em within the 'trash-hand' realm instead of just ANY hand then I suspect the AK vs. JJ will be closer to 50/50 against each other as we might expect.

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According to the OP, the maniac was playing this way blind. So you cannot make any assumptions about his hand. Even maniacs wake up with decent cards. If you automatically assign them "trash cards", you will get some unpleasant surprises.

[Jive Dadson]

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If you more narrowly define Hand 3's hold-em within the 'trash-hand' realm instead of just ANY hand then I suspect the AK vs. JJ will be closer to 50/50 against each other as we might expect.

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Even if you give the maniac 72o, the AK is only winning 39%. Improve his hand to 52o, and AK goes down to 37%. Break-even is 33.3, so it's positive EV, but nothing to get enormously excited about. How bout them apples, Professor? But wait! What if the big pair is not JJ, but KK or (shudder) AA?

Oooph!

The problem is, the maniac is winning about 15%, even with complete trash.

[MicroBob]

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Regular in LP proudly states he mucked AK because he knew that would happen.

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Based on this, the player is proud of his fold AFTER he saw the cards turned up.
The OP informed him that his AK against those hands was actually in decent shape.

So for the simulation of whether the OP should have been super happy about his fold AFTER the fact I was thinking we should be looking at the 'trash' hand that the maniac was playing.


If we were talking about how sure he was about folding that when he actually did it then I think putting the maniac on the range of ANY and the other player on some sort of realistic range (including JJ of course) would be practical.

But I thought we were talking about shaq's comment that IF he had played he actually would have been okay...and that the guy should have been less thrilled with folding than he was.


I think the pokerstove sim should either be 'decent all-in range + any two vs. AK' or specifically 'JJ + trash vs. AK'.

You're kind of combining before and after I think.