Headache

[MLG]

shermn,
1. you need to discount JJ a little I think (since he didnt raise preflop).

2. What makes this a fold as opposed to a call now?

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
shermn,
1. you need to discount JJ a little I think (since he didnt raise preflop).

2. What makes this a fold as opposed to a call now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, tell me if I am doing this wrong, but I think it is right. If you call (equity = 32.0294%): you get .320294 x 17524 (pot total with your call) = 5612.83 which is ever so slightly less than 5734 (amount to call).

Thus, you lose 121.17 against the range I identified. If we discount JJ a little bit, I am pretty sure this will make it a call, but I'll do the math anyway.

If he never has JJ, the move is +cEV 244.52.
If he has JJ 1/2 of the time it is +cEV 61.68.

So IMO, your edge here is positive, but very slight. I can't say I have ever played with you, but I think most agree that you are a very good player. You probably find a place with a better edge.

[MLG]

sherm,
thanks, but part of what i think makes me a good player, is that i do not pass on edges early. anyway now that we've looked at the jammer, we need to think about the original check-raiser who is still to act. how does his range impact our overall equity.

[Art Vandelay]

I read this and first thought fold it. But after thinking about it, I'm kind of liking a shove here for the following reasons. Let's look at two possibilities after our shove, UTG+1 folds and UTG+1 calls a push.

1. If its just us and MP2, we risk ~5700 to win ~11800 so we are getting right at 2:1. As you guys have pointed out, I don't think his range is strictly set or 2 pair so our A counts for something. Granted its not much, but it's better than nothing I think. I think this is good enough for a call.

2. UTG+1 calls our shove, then we are definitely drawing to at best 9 outs because there's no way both of these guys have OESFD (unless the gambling gods are with us 100% on this day). However, him calling our shove means we risk 8800 to win a pot of a little over 27k. That's more than 3:1 on our shove.

So in option 1, we get 2:1 and in option 2 3:1. Let's gamble for a monster stack. This is obviously the higher variance road and ultimately I think this one's probably close enough to where we can either shove or fold and not really be grossly wrong. I don't have Stove to do any numbers but I'd be interested in seeing the numbers for an UTG+1 call of our push.

Edit: Cleaning up typing.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
sherm,
thanks, but part of what i think makes me a good player, is that i do not pass on edges early. anyway now that we've looked at the jammer, we need to think about the original check-raiser who is still to act. how does his range impact our overall equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few things:
1. I agree with you that you cannot pass up on early edges of say 5%, but this edge is more like 1%, and certainly is viable to pass up on.

2. [censored]! When you said it folded back around to you, I read it as though you were closing in the action. If you think this guy will come along, there is no doubt that this is a call. I think about any range of hands that he wants to come along with is +cEV for you. To make it simple, the more often he calls, the better.

To make it complicated, we need a hand range for him presently, and a hand range for him to call.

PS - He is probably going to call with any flush draw once he sees that you are in.

[adanthar]

Mike,

Even w/o the results, this is a(t least one) set nearly 100%. Then, you have to figure the chances of you missing some outs, and needing to beat them both to win (which matters some because if you were the middle stack, you could occasionally win a sidepot off a KJ or something with the ace).

So no, it's not a superdraw and you should fold although, FWIW, the third guy played it worse.

[MLG]

adanth,
I am the middle stack. utg+1 has me covered and offers some side pot possibilities.

[woodguy]

Will UTG+1 be able to resist the odds if you come along?

If he comes along you are ok since you probably have 27% ish equity.

If UTG+1 folds it will probably boost your equity to about 32%.

I think its very close either way.

How come you weren't the first to c/r or lead here looking to 3 bet allin?

I know you are OOP in a muliway pot, but do you really like flat calling the button here? Were you trying to get over callers?

What do you think about a raise to 3700 assuming it gets HU and pushing the turn? (of course this trainwreck happened, but who knew.....)

Button is con't betting into a big field after raising the whole table PF, he's probably reasonably strong, but it doesn't mean he's not going to go away if we don't hit the turn...

Regards,
Woodguy

[adanthar]

Yah, but like, if you shove and he folds, you're screwed, and if he calls, you're still screwed because he's got JT min and if he doesn't you're missing a huge chunk of your outs (it's worse because the clubs are both SF cards so he's tainting up to four).

This is a crap situation to be in and I might not be able to make this deep of an analysis at the table, though, I'd just fold out of 'OK I'm a big dog for a 50 BB stack for sure and pot odds wise this cannot be better than very thin' principle.

edit: you are right about the middle stack part and that alters it a little, but I don't *think* it's enough. I'm willing to admit it might be a super thin call if I worked it out thoroughly enough, but I come at this from the theory that folding cannot be more than a tiny leak and calling could be a large one depending on what we think those ranges are.

[MLG]

ad,
im not sure the math bares out your assumptions about ep's impact on our equity.