25NL, is there even a question?

[Godfather80]

Results in white:

<font color="white">I push (actually putting BB all-in for $21) and BB calls. BB shows 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Turn and river bring NO clubs. MHING. </font>

[Pokey]

gimmetheloot said:
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Pokey, I dont know how you are saying we have that many clean outs. At least some of them are very, very dirty. IE (9's, 6's)


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Why would either of those outs be dirty? Sure, a 9 puts four to the straight on the board, but that doesn't matter; villain doesn't have a 7. A tight-passive opponent does not raise preflop with a hand that includes a 7, nor does he raise the flop with a hand that includes a 7. Similarly, a 6 is not a scary card; it pairs the board but gives you trips. Villain's hand range doesn't include 6s.

We're not talking about someone who is raising suited connectors preflop, here; we're talking about a guy with an overpair or two big broadway cards. OK, so it's theoretically possible he's got 99 or 77, but they both seem like unlikely holdings. Villain LIKES his hand; passive players don't get all raise-happy with 77 on this board. More importantly, villain is very likely to fold the holdings that would scare us the most (99 or 77) to our push, but is likely to call with the holdings that scare us the least (like QQ+ or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

Nepthu said:
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Here is what I got from pokerstove:
(his hand) - (your equity)
set - ~38%
straight - ~41%
two pair - ~55%
overpair - ~55%


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Villain doesn't have a straight or two pair; this is NOT a guy who is raising preflop with 97, 86, 85, 74, or 65. He's tight and passive; those guys don't pull that kind of move. Sets are theoretically possible but unlikely; villain is more likely to just "see a flop" with 66 or 55. If villain happens to have 88, that's just bad luck, but against villain's range, your hand is dyn-o-mite.

[grando]

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Let's count, shall we?

9 club outs
3 straight outs
2 set outs
3 two-pair outs

That's 17 outs, and I'd guess that they are all clean.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

there's no way you have anywhere near that many outs clean vs. a loose passive

[Godfather80]

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Let's count, shall we?

9 club outs
3 straight outs
2 set outs
3 two-pair outs

That's 17 outs, and I'd guess that they are all clean.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

there's no way you have anywhere near that many outs clean vs. a loose passive

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Our concern is BB who is tight passive. The loose passive Button does not factor into the hand.

[gimmetheloot]

Pokey, he called a minraise pf, he did not raise. Im sure there are a ton of hands he calls a minraise with pf that have 6's/7's in them.

[Godfather80]

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Pokey, he called a minraise pf, he did not raise. Im sure there are a ton of hands he calls a minraise with pf that have 6's/7's in them.

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This is correct. BB called the preflop min-raise.

[Pokey]

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

there's no way you have anywhere near that many outs clean vs. a loose passive

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Don't be so quick to discount it. tight passives are going to bet like this with BIG hands only: that's AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and TT primarily. Against these hands, ALL of the listed outs are clean. If villain has 99, we lose three of our outs. Against 88 we lose five outs, bringing us down to "only" 12 outs (break-even considering the pot overlay). Against naked overcards, we GAIN outs, since it's our opponent who has to improve, not us.

So: if you include 99 and 88 in villain's range, but you also include AK in villain's range, we're still averaging about 17 outs against his range. Considering we only need 14 outs to be a 50/50 split, and considering that the pot is offering us an overlay, and considering that villain will lay down SOME of his raising hands to a push, we've got a safely +EV situation if we shove.

[gimmetheloot]

TP's very, very rarely raise a hand they are folding.

Also, Pokey, he is never raising random overcards here...cmon.

I do agree, we have probably 12 clean outs, probably against a ~6 out redraw (combining 2pr/set, probably still came out with the wrong number...) and that pushing isnt bad, but a call is better IMO.

[xwillience]

Pokey, I think you may have misread the OP. our villain didnt raise preflop. he called. he raised the flop and folded out the PFR. I think its very possible villain has an OP such as 88+ or a set or a str8.

[Pokey]

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Pokey, he called a minraise pf, he did not raise. Im sure there are a ton of hands he calls a minraise with pf that have 6's/7's in them.

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This is correct. BB called the preflop min-raise.

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Arrrrgh, I confused BB and Button. Sorry -- I'm getting tired.

Yes, that does change things, but it also makes him more likely to be scared of a push. His range now includes all sorts of flush draws and straight draws, most of which will fold to a push. It does make sets more likely, however, and that's unfortunate, but with a pair PLUS a flush draw PLUS an inside straight draw you just can't walk away from the hand. I can't put him on any made straights, so your worst-case scenario is 88, against which you still have an a basically break-even draw considering the pot overlay. Given that he can also have other, worse hands, and given that he might fold sometimes, I *still* think the push is your best choice.

You need to see two more cards here, and that's only happening if you push. Besides, if you DO connect, getting paid off is going to be tricky, because your outs are fairly obvious.