**OFFICIAL Nebraska @ USC +18.5 ** (poohbah post)

[CarlSpackler]

I agree with your play on Nebraska, no way this line should be higher than 13, and I love the money line, because I think Nebraska wins this game about 25 - 33% of the time.

I think you're way off thinking this will be a low scoring game. Both teams have balanced offenses and will put up points. Both NU and usc will have big plays on offense against these battered secondaries. Each team has already lost their best db for the season, and is dealing with other injuries there as well.

USC will also be without their stud NT Ellis, which should be mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nebraska's center Mann will also miss the game, but this is a huge loss for the trojans as he is the anchor of their dline in the new 3-4 hybrid defense they're now running. This will make it easier for Nebraska to establish their running game, which in turn will allow them to effectively use play action.

If usc's smart, they'll run lots of 3 receiver sets, because nebraska has nothing but inexperience and ???'s after their starting secondary.

[bmxreed36]

I'm from Lincoln, so here's my take on Nebraska FWIW. I've been real impressed with Zac Taylor so far this year--73% completion rate and many of the incomplete passes have just been dropped or caught just out of bounds so he's been right on target almost every single pass. Alot of this is due to great protection which he didnt have last year. Overall the offense has been nicely balanced but I'm not sure running well against La. Tech and Nicholls St. are the best measuring sticks.

Defensively I think the line and LB's have been great and I can see them being somewhat successful up front against USC. Of course, the biggest question is the DB's and I'm sure if given enough time, USC will have a couple big plays.

Admittedly I don't know much about USC besides the fact they lost Leinert and Bush but everyone says they're fine and dandy without em so I assume for now that they're good. I won't be shocked if USC kills NU but there's no way IMO that they beat them by 18+ more than half the time.

[BobJoeJim]

I'm pretty uncomfortable with this game. I'm a Pac-Ten devotee, and so I'll be watching with lots of interest, but until after this game is played, I don't feel comfortable in my analysis of USC, and I definitely don't know Nebraska well enough to make a play on this game.

My *leaning* is that USC is still USC, and that they'll be dominant again this year. The defense looks good, and Nebraska's passing attack is certainly good, but nothing special to a Pac Ten team. Meanwhile, cornerback is a REALLY bad spot to have injuries against USC, and the Trojans had a week to prepare. Therefore if I had to bet, I'd take, USC, but 18 points is a lot to lay on a team I'm not sure about, against a ranked opponent I don't know too well. I certainly won't do it on an uninformed gut instinct.

[CarlSpackler]

Basically position by position here's how the game breaks down:

QB - advantage Huskers
RB - advantage Huskers
WR - advantage usc
TE - even
Oline -advantage usc

Dline - advantage huskers
LB - advantage usc
DB - ??????? Nebraska's starters are better, but usc's depth is far superior despite their inexperience

Kicking/Punting - even
Return game - even
Coverage teams - slight advantage usc or even

Sellout at the Coliseum: 92,000 fans
# of Nebraska fans in attendance: 30,000+


On offense, I don't see usc being able to establish a running game vs. Nebraska's front 7, especially now that their stud center is out. I think it's very probable that usc's young rb's to cough up the pigskin at least once or twice as well. Usc is going to mainly move the chains by throwing the football, and they probably have the best wr core in the country to throw to. The key is going to be if usc can give Booty time to throw. If Booty is allowed to sit back comfortably in the pocket and go through his progressions, it's going to be a long day for NU.

The huskers are going to run all sorts of blitzes to try and shake that Booty. Booty's biggest weaknesses right now are his presnap reads on the defense, and game experience in general -- he only has 1 start and he hasn't had to face any adversity yet. When you also factor in that usc will mostly be relying on inexperienced rb's to pick up Nebraska's blitzing lb's, the huskers should have several opportunities to make some big plays on defense. Imo Nebraska will put pressure on Booty. I think usc will counter this by moving Booty out of the pocket on rollouts and such.

When the huskers' are on offense, they're going to have to play mistake free football. They can't afford to make turnovers and give usc a short field to work with. Winning the turnover battle is critical for Nebraska, and on paper, you have to think that Zac Taylor is less likely to make mistakes than Booty (against Arkansas, usc forced 5 turnovers and committed none.)

Nebraska will run the football with their 4 stud rb's, but the question is how effectively. Usc probably has the best lb core in the country, playing behind a really good dline. NU will be without their starting center Mann, so this is a negative, although usc's NT Ellis is out for the game too. Imo, the Nebraska run game vs. the USC run defense is the biggest unknown in this game. I could see usc's defense holding nu to 3 yards or less per carry, and I could also see NU's backs breaking a big run or two and ending up with 150 yards, give or take.

Usc's defense faces the same exact challenge as NU's defense -- they've got to get consistent pressure on Taylor, or their secondary is going to get shredded. This is the best core of wr's that Nebraska has ever had, and while not usc caliber (whose is?) they've got plenty of weapons with Nunn, Purify, Swift, Hardy, etc. While NU's pass blocking is light years ahead of where it was last year, usc is going to get plenty of pressure on Taylor throughout the game. Taylor is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly, and if he can hit his wr's in stride there should be plenty of big passing plays.

Finally, usc isn't going to have the normal home field advantage that they're accustomed to. Around 1/3 of the stadium is going to be Nebraska fans. It's going to be almost like a bowl atmosphere -- anyone who saw the 2000 Notre Dame-NU game knows what I'm talking about.

And from reading practice reports, I just don't think usc is taking this game as seriously as Nebraska. Callahan finally has all of the personnel necessary to run the WCO, and this may be the best Husker team since 1997. I'm expecting a higher scoring close game, with the outcome not being decided until the final minutes. Something along the lines of 34 - 31.

My projected line has usc favored by 10, and as I stated earlier, I think Nebraska wins this game at least 1 out of 4 times (probably 1 out of 3), so the moneyline is a great play too, imo.

[Zag Nutz]

Have you seen the Husker secondary this year, and Grixby has been abused? I don't see any way that USC scores less than 30 in this game, so the Husker offense better be hitting on all cylinders.

I would also hesitate to call the Husker backfield full of studs, b/c none of them are as good of a runner as Corey Ross from last year IMO. Let's remember who their first two opponents were as well, b/c anyone could look good vs. Nicholls St.

Living in Omaha and being ambivalent to the Huskers I just don't see any scenario where UNL doesn't lose by at least 20 points.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm hesitant to give the Huskers the advantage at any position

[pirateboy]

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I'm hesitant to give the Huskers the advantage at any position

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[CarlSpackler]

I have no doubt that Nebraska will give up a couple big pass plays. I also have no doubt that the blackshirts are going to be coming after Booty hard -- this is basically the same defense that led the country in sacks last year. I'll reiterate, Nebraska has blitzed only 2 or 3 times this season, because they didn't want to show anything to usc before the game. On Saturday, they're not going to just rush 4 and let Booty stand back in the pocket and pick them apart. They're going to tap that Booty hard and often.

On the other hand, USC's secondary is in even worse shape, imo. There best db, Pinkard, is out for the year with a true freshman starting in his place. They have at least one pretty banged up corner. And the secondary was the weak link to their defense to begin with.

Cory Ross was a tough kid with a lot of heart, but right now Lucky and Glenn >>> Ross. Last year had BJax not gotten hurt, he would have split carries Ross. The only reason Ross got more carries than Lucky and Glenn last year was because they hadn't picked up pass protection well enough.

And it goes without saying that if Lucky had broken his comittment to Nebraska last year and gone to USC instead, he would be starting for them this year.

[Your Mom]

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Have you seen the Husker secondary this year, and Grixby has been abused? I don't see any way that USC scores less than 30 in this game, so the Husker offense better be hitting on all cylinders.

I would also hesitate to call the Husker backfield full of studs, b/c none of them are as good of a runner as Corey Ross from last year IMO. Let's remember who their first two opponents were as well, b/c anyone could look good vs. Nicholls St.

Living in Omaha and being ambivalent to the Huskers I just don't see any scenario where UNL doesn't lose by at least 20 points.

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Not sure how you can say Grixby has been abused when Nebraska opponents have completed 13 passes out of 35 attempts on the season. I would say that all 4 running backs are better runners than Ross, not better players, but better runners.

[Zag Nutz]

Well Nicholls St. didn't complete a pass. If you saw the La. Tech game then you saw Grixby getting owned several times. The completions in that game (13/32) don't reflect Grixby, rather UNL's defensive front seven that severly overmatched their opponents O-line.

We'll certainly see Saturday night, but I feel pretty strongly that the USC receivers will be having a field day with the defensive backs of UNL. The only that will stop that is if USC's QB isn't given any time to make reads and throws.