200-400 Hand.

[Paluka]

It is definitely not an easy spot, but I'm not sure on close call vs close fold. If I were somehow guaranteed I'd be able to see the river for just 1 bet on the turn if I so desired, than I would say close call.

[elindauer]

I used to think this was an easy fold, but Peter Rus convinced me (back when he posted the hand he linked to here) that it's actually a slightly positive EV call. I admit that I sometimes miss calls like these because I'm too quick to recognize that I "missed" and fold.

Note that we've been put in an almost perfect situation to make this call.

- button is a typical high stakes player, so he might be willing to cap preflop but then give us a free card on the turn (AK comes to mind here as a hand he might play very aggressively but then check after being called twice on the flop).

- we will likely know on the turn whether or not we can call closing the action. Our position here is perfect.

- our backdoor diamond draw is almost guaranteed to be good. AKd (Kd in our hand) AQd (Qd on board) AJd (Jd in our hand) are all impossible holdings.

- all backdoor straight draws guaranteed to be the nuts.


A K or J may also be good, as JJ and AK are both easily in button's range. I'd say it's a close call. If I'm wrong, then it's a close fold, but "clear fold" is almost certainly incorrect.

-Eric

[Trix]

For meta reasons or do you think this call in isolation is +EV?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bicyclekick]

I'm a calling station and I don't exactly know whether it's right or not (but pretty sure it's a call) and I've been calling in this spot.

[kahntrutahn]

Yep, I'm peeling here too...

[ILOVEPOKER929]

I think its close, but I would call. I would just like to add that one aspect that would make this an easy call for me is, if you can hit a King or a Jack on the turn, or you hit a King or a Jack on the river assuming you turned a draw, how perfectly can you play these hands given your read on your opponents? For example: If you hit a Jack on the turn and the action goes check, check, and the BTN bets and the other guy folds and now the actions on you, and lets say you call, can you play the river prefectly against this guy? Do you know if this guy will bluff the river more than optimally in this spot or will he only bet the river if he has Jx beat meaning you can safely check/fold. Or If you deem that betting is the correct play if you have a pair of Jacks or Kings by the river, is this an easy call if the villain raises? or is this an easy fold?

I guess my point it, it looks to me you have a close call on the flop, but if you can hit your pair outs on the turn or river and play them well becuz you know youre opponents well, I dont think your flop call close, I think it becomes an easy call.

[Gabe]

call. if you knew button would bet every turn 100% of the time, it's close.

[PokerBob]

it may depend a bit on my knowledge of button, but i'd likely call here.

[mike l.]

none of the pair outs are clean, and that's where hero loses money (rio).

also the implied odds arent as good as they seem because, with 3 people seeing the turn, picking up a draw could become very expensive. typical high limit players share one trait: they are aggressive and tend to keep the pressure on. this is a fold.