Another Mansion free bet

[FortFun]

Do we have to bet exactly $1100? I plan on taking full advantage of this promotion, but my buddy doesn't have $1100 to put on this but still wants to take advantage of it.

[Levarkin]

Yup, $1,100 USD minimum.

[Thremp]

Dolphins is getting bombed on Pinny. Wonder why :/

[Levarkin]

Line moved to +4.5 already, as on a few other books I've checked. Looking for +5 elsewhere. Still excellent at +4.5, of course, but I don't like that downside of a 5-point Dolphin loss, no matter how remote.

[136913691369]

Does anyone think the line will move by tomorrow at mansion? I dont have 1100 in my neteller account yet. Hope the line stays put at -110.

[Levarkin]

"Does anyone think the line will move by tomorrow at mansion? I dont have 1100 in my neteller account yet. Hope the line stays put at -110."

Wouldn't matter if it moves only a half-point though, no? No difference between a push and a loss on the five. Getting to -6 would suck though.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
If you assign any decent chance to Miami covering here (i.e. between 55% and 60%) then there's no EV to lose by hedging, as my calcs are coming out. I don't do this kind of arb work often, but if the Miami bet itself is +EV, how can one go wrong to hedge?

[/ QUOTE ]

I say this is more 50/50 and you lose EV by hedging... Since you always lose EV headging [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bb88]

So what's the best sportsbook to hedge this bet on? I've never used a sportsbook before and aren't sure which other one to go to.

[Levarkin]

"Since you always lose EV hedging"

Seems to me that this would be an exception if you believe Dolphins +5 at to be +EV despite the juice, as I think it might be, though I am far less confident in that than I am that I'm happy just to take the free $$$.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
"Since you always lose EV hedging"

Seems to me that this would be an exception if you believe Dolphins +5 at to be +EV despite the juice, as I think it might be, though I am far less confident in that than I am that I'm happy just to take the free $$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is the juice on the other side.